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Related papers: Universality Classes for Extreme Value Statistics

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Extreme value analysis is an essential methodology in the study of rare and extreme events, which hold significant interest in various fields, particularly in the context of environmental sciences. Models that employ the exceedances of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-16 Lorenzo Dell'Oro , Carlo Gaetan

In classical extreme value theory probabilities of extreme events are estimated assuming all the components of a random vector to be in a domain of attraction of an extreme value distribution. In contrast, the conditional extreme value…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-08-30 Bikramjit Das , Sidney I. Resnick

The statistics of records in sequences of independent, identically distributed random variables is a classic subject of study. One of the earliest results concerns the stochastic independence of record events. Recently, records statistics…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2011-09-26 Gregor Wergen , Jasper Franke , Joachim Krug

The coarse spatial resolution of gridded climate models, such as general circulation models, limits their direct use in projecting socially relevant variables like extreme precipitation. Most downscaling methods estimate the conditional…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-01-06 Louise Largeau , Tom Beucler , David Leutwyler , Gregoire Mariethoz , Valerie Chavez-Demoulin , Erwan Koch

Order parameter fluctuations for the two dimensional Ising model in the region of the critical temperature are presented. A locus of temperatures T*(L) and of magnetic fields B*(L) are identified, for which the probability density function…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-10 Maxime Clusel , Jean-Yves Fortin , Peter C. W. Holdsworth

The extreme values theory presents specific tools for modeling and predicting extreme phenomena. In particular, risk assessment is often analyzed through measures for tail dependence and high values clustering. Despite technological…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-03-23 Helena Ferreira , Marta Ferreira

For non-uniformly hyperbolic dynamical systems we consider the time series of maxima along typical orbits. Using ideas based upon quantitative recurrence time statistics we prove convergence of the maxima (under suitable normalization) to…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2015-09-11 Mark Holland , Pau Rabassa , Alef Sterk

The last decade has seen numerous record-shattering heatwaves in all corners of the globe. In the aftermath of these devastating events, there is interest in identifying worst-case thresholds or upper bounds that quantify just how hot…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2025-01-24 Mark D. Risser , Likun Zhang , Michael F. Wehner

From environmental sciences to finance, there is a growing demand for methods that can assess the risks of extreme events beyond those observed in available data. Extrapolating extreme events beyond the range of the data is not obvious.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-07 Boris Beranger , Simone A. Padoan

One of the main goal of extreme value analysis is to estimate the probability of rare events given a sample from an unknown distribution. The upper tail behavior of this distribution is described by the extreme value index. We present a new…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Laurent Gardes , Stephane Girard

We consider nonequilibrium systems with complex dynamics in stationary states with large fluctuations of intensive quantities (e.g. the temperature, chemical potential, or energy dissipation) on long time scales. Depending on the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-07 C. Beck , E. G. D. Cohen

Estimation of extreme conditional quantiles is often required for risk assessment of natural hazards in climate and geo-environmental sciences and for quantitative risk management in statistical finance, econometrics, and actuarial…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-16 Jordan Richards , Raphaël Huser

The masses of data now available have opened up the prospect of discovering weak signals using machine-learning algorithms, with a view to predictive or interpretation tasks. As this survey of recent results attempts to show, bringing…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-06 Stephan Clémençon , Anne Sabourin

In this thesis, we study three physically relevant models of strongly correlated random variables: trapped fermions, random matrices and random walks. In the first part, we show several exact mappings between the ground state of a trapped…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-06-24 Bertrand Lacroix-A-Chez-Toine

Even though strongly correlated systems are abundant, only a few exceptional cases admit analytical solutions. In this paper we present a large class of solvable systems with strong correlations.. We consider a set of $N$ independent and…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-01-04 Marco Biroli , Hernán Larralde , Satya N. Majumdar , Grégory Schehr

We study the problem of selecting features associated with extreme values in high dimensional linear regression. Normally, in linear modeling problems, the presence of abnormal extreme values or outliers is considered an anomaly which…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-16 Andersen Chang , Minjie Wang , Genevera Allen

The possibility is considered that turbulence is described by differential equations for which uniqueness fails maximally, at least in some limit. The inviscid Burgers equation, in the context of Onsager's suggestion that turbulence should…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2007-05-23 Mark A. Peterson

Although generalized ensembles have now been in use in statistical mechanics for decades, including frameworks such as Tsallis' nonextensive statistics and superstatistics, a classification of these generalized ensembles outlining the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-11-09 Sergio Davis

We propose a new class of extreme-value copulas which are extreme-value limits of conditional normal models. Conditional normal models are generalizations of conditional independence models, where the dependence among observed variables is…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-16 Pavel Krupskii , Marc G. Genton

Statistical modeling of multivariate and spatial extreme events has attracted broad attention in various areas of science. Max-stable distributions and processes are the natural class of models for this purpose, and many parametric families…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-08-09 Clement Dombry , Sebastian Engelke , Marco Oesting