Related papers: Large financial crashes
Since the beginning of the new millennium, stock markets went through every state from long-time troughs, trade suspensions to all-time highs. The literature on asset pricing hence assumes random processes to be underlying the movement of…
The principal aim of this work is the evidence on empirical way that catastrophic bifurcation breakdowns or transitions, proceeded by flickering phenomenon, are present on notoriously significant and unpredictable financial markets.…
By combining (i) the economic theory of rational expectation bubbles, (ii) behavioral finance on imitation and herding of investors and traders and (iii) the mathematical and statistical physics of bifurcations and phase transitions, the…
Prediction of events in financial markets is every investor's dream and, usually, wishful thinking. From a more general, economic and societal viewpoint, the identification of indicators for large events is highly desirable to assess…
Financial markets are well known for their dramatic dynamics and consequences that affect much of the world's population. Consequently, much research has aimed at understanding, identifying and forecasting crashes and rebounds in financial…
Using a modified damped harmonic oscillator model equivalent to a model of market dynamics with price expectations, we analyze the reaction of financial markets to shocks. In order to do this, we gather data from indices of a variety of…
We investigate the recently introduced variety of a set of stock returns traded in a financial market. This investigation is done by considering daily and intraday time horizons in a 15-day time period centered at the August 31st, 1998…
In financial markets, greater volatility is usually considered synonym of greater risk and instability. However, large market downturns and upturns are often preceded by long periods where price returns exhibit only small fluctuations. To…
Empirical diagnosis of stability has received considerable attention, mostly focused on variance metrics for early warning signals of abrupt system change. Despite this, the theoretical foundation and application has been limited to…
By the early 1960's advances in statistical physics had established the existence of universality classes for systems with second-order phase transitions and characterized these by critical exponents which are different to the classical…
In order to figure out and to forecast the emergence phenomena of social systems, we propose several probabilistic models for the analysis of financial markets, especially around a crisis. We first attempt to visualize the collective…
Predicting panic is of critical importance in many areas of human and animal behavior, notably in the context of economics. The recent financial crisis is a case in point. Panic may be due to a specific external threat, or self-generated…
We investigate the large-volatility dynamics in financial markets, based on the minute-to-minute and daily data of the Chinese Indices and German DAX. The dynamic relaxation both before and after large volatilities is characterized by a…
In order to understand the origin of stock price jumps, we cross-correlate high-frequency time series of stock returns with different news feeds. We find that neither idiosyncratic news nor market wide news can explain the frequency and…
During any unique crisis, panic sell-off leads to a massive stock market crash that may continue for more than a day, termed as mainshock. The effect of a mainshock in the form of aftershocks can be felt throughout the recovery phase of…
A phenomenon of the financial log-periodicity is discussed and the characteristics that amplify its predictive potential are elaborated. The principal one is self-similarity that obeys across all the time scales. Furthermore the same…
Following the thermodynamic formulation of multifractal measure that was shown to be capable of detecting large fluctuations at an early stage, here we propose a new index which permits us to distinguish events like financial crisis in real…
Keeping a basic tenet of economic theory, rational expectations, we model the nonlinear positive feedback between agents in the stock market as an interplay between nonlinearity and multiplicative noise. The derived hyperbolic stochastic…
We study historical correlations and lead-lag relationships between individual stock risk (volatility of daily stock returns) and market risk (volatility of daily returns of a market-representative portfolio) in the US stock market. We…
This paper is devoted to problem of detecting critical events at finiacial markets using methods of multifractal analysis. Namely, the local regularity of time-series is studied. As a result, one can find out a special behavior or signal of…