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Improving Importance Sampling estimators for rare event probabilities requires sharp approx- imations of the optimal density leading to a nearly zero-variance estimator. This paper presents a new way to handle the estimation of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-01-15 Virgile Caron

Relative complexity measures the complexity of a probability preserving transformation relative to a factor being a sequence of random variables whose exponential growth rate is the relative entropy of the extension. We prove distributional…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2012-10-30 Jon Aaronson

Extreme events have an important role which is sometime catastrophic in a variety of natural phenomena including climate, earthquakes and turbulence, as well as in man-made environments like financial markets. Statistical analysis and…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2009-10-31 Victor S. L'vov , Anna Pomyalov , Itamar Procaccia

We obtain the distribution of the maximal average in a sequence of independent identically distributed exponential random variables. Surprisingly enough, it turns out that the inverse distribution admits a simple closed form. An application…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-06-25 Dimitris Cheliotis , Nickos Papadatos

Global physical properties of random media change qualitatively at a percolation threshold, where isolated clusters merge to form one infinite connected component. The precise knowledge of percolation thresholds is thus of paramount…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-01-13 Richard A. Neher , Klaus Mecke , Herbert Wagner

The entropy of the random walk on the discrete contable group could be used for comparison of the system of the generators. Fundamental inequality between growth, entropy and escape gives the possibility to define "the best" system of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-11-18 Anatoly M. Vershik

We consider the extremal properties of the highly flexible univariate extended skew-normal distribution. We derive the well-known Mills' inequalities and Mills' ratio for the extended skew-normal distribution and establish the asymptotic…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-01 Boris Beranger , Simone A. Padoan , Yangfan Xu , Scott A. Sisson

Let $W_n, n\in\mn_{0}$ be an intrinsic martingale with almost sure limit $W$ in a supercritical branching random walk. We provide criteria for the $L_p$-convergence of the series $\sum_{n\ge 0} e^{an}(W-W_n)$ for $p>1$ and $a>0$. The result…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-03-24 Gerold Alsmeyer , Alex Iksanov , Sergej Polotsky , Uwe Roesler

We give sharp, uniform estimates for the probability that a random walk of n steps on the reals avoids a half-line [y,infinity) given that it ends at the point x. The estimates hold for general continuous or lattice distributions provided…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-06-18 Kevin Ford

This paper develops a new divergence that generalizes relative entropy and can be used to compare probability measures without a requirement of absolute continuity. We establish properties of the divergence, and in particular derive and…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-11-19 Paul Dupuis , Yixiang Mao

Random probabilities are a key component to many nonparametric methods in Statistics and Machine Learning. To quantify comparisons between different laws of random probabilities several works are starting to use the elegant Wasserstein over…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-27 Marta Catalano , Hugo Lavenant

Two-dimensional random Lorentz gases with absorbing traps are considered in which a moving point particle undergoes elastic collisions on hard disks and annihilates when reaching a trap. In systems of finite spatial extension, the…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2015-06-26 I. Claus , P. Gaspard , H. van Beijeren

In this paper we show that in systems where the probability distribution of the the overlap is non trivial in the infinity volume limit, the property of ultrametricity can be proved in general starting from two very simple and natural…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2009-10-31 Giorgio Parisi , Federico Ricci-Tersenghi

Random walk on the set of irreducible representations of a finite group is investigated. For the symmetric and general linear groups, a sharp convergence rate bound is obtained and a cutoff phenomenon is proved. As related results, an…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Jason Fulman

In this paper we characterize the limiting behavior of sums of extreme values of long range dependent sequences defined as functionals of linear processes with finite variance. The extremal sums behave completely different by compared to…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Rafal Kulik

This article investigates the phenomenon of maximal rigidity in spatial processes, where perfect interpolation of the process is possible from partial information, specifically, from its restriction to a strict subdomain, often resulting in…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-12 Raphaël Lachièze-Rey

We study random simplicial complexes in the multi-parameter upper model. In this model simplices of various dimensions are taken randomly and independently, and our random simplicial complex $Y$ is then taken to be the minimal simplicial…

Algebraic Topology · Mathematics 2022-09-13 Michael Farber , Tahl Nowik

Given a sequence of random variables $\left\{ X_k : k \geq 1\right\}$ uniformly distributed in $(0,1)$ and independent, we consider the following random sets of directions $$\Omega_{\text{rand},\text{lin}} := \left\{ \frac{\pi X_k}{k}: k…

Functional Analysis · Mathematics 2023-12-20 Anthony Gauvan

A bijection is given between fixed point free involutions of $\{1,2,...,2N\}$ with maximum decreasing subsequence size $2p$ and two classes of vicious (non-intersecting) random walker configurations confined to the half line lattice points…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2009-11-07 T. H. Baker , P. J. Forrester

We derive exact statistical properties of a class of recursive fragmentation processes. We show that introducing a fragmentation probability 0<p<1 leads to a purely algebraic size distribution in one dimension, P(x) ~ x^{-2p}. In d…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 P. L. Krapivsky , I. Grosse , E. Ben-Naim