Related papers: Predictability of Self-Organizing Systems
Event-based state estimation can achieve estimation quality comparable to traditional time-triggered methods, but with a significantly lower number of samples. In networked estimation problems, this reduction in sampling instants does,…
This paper is the second in a series of two, and describes the current state of the art in modelling and prediction of chaotic time series. Sampled data from deterministic non-linear systems may look stochastic when analysed with linear…
The study of complex systems has attracted widespread attention from researchers in the fields of natural sciences, social sciences, and engineering. Prediction is one of the central issues in this field. Although most related studies have…
Earthquakes are complex physical processes driven by the stick-slip motion of a sliding fault. After the main quake, a series of aftershocks typically follows. These are loosely defined as events that follow a given event and occur within…
Despite the enormous efforts towards searching for precursors, no precursors have exhibited real predictive power with respect to an earthquake thus far. Seismogenic locked segments that can accumulate adequate strain energy to cause major…
Future communication networks are expected to feature autonomic (or self-organizing) mechanisms to ease deployment (self-configuration), tune parameters automatically (self-optimization) and repair the network (self-healing).…
Self-organization is ubiquitous in nature and mind. However, machine learning and theories of cognition still barely touch the subject. The hurdle is that general patterns are difficult to define in terms of dynamical equations and…
Chaos and unpredictability are traditionally synonymous, yet large-scale machine learning methods recently have demonstrated a surprising ability to forecast chaotic systems well beyond typical predictability horizons. However, recent works…
Prediction in complex systems at criticality is believed to be very difficult, if not impossible. Of particular interest is whether earthquakes, whose distribution follows a power law (Gutenberg-Richter) distribution, are in principle…
The hypothesis of self-organized criticality explains the existence of long-range `space-time' correlations, observed inseparably in many natural dynamical systems. A simple link between these correlations is yet unclear, particularly in…
We propose that catastrophic events are "outliers" with statistically different properties than the rest of the population and result from mechanisms involving amplifying critical cascades. Applications and the potential for prediction are…
This paper studies a stylized model of local interaction where agents choose from an ever increasing set of vertically ranked actions, e.g. technologies. The driving forces of the model are infrequent upward shifts (``updates''), followed…
The Olami--Feder--Christensen earthquake model is often considered the prototype dissipative self--organized critical model. It is shown that the size distribution of events in this model results from a complex interplay of several…
The starting point of the present review is to acknowledge that there are innumerable reports of non-seismic types of earthquake precursory phenomena that are intermittent and seem not to occur systematically, while associated reports are…
This paper is concerned with mathematical modeling of intelligent systems, such as human crowds and animal groups. In particular, the focus is on the emergence of different self-organized patterns from non-locality and anisotropy of the…
In a low-order model of the general circulation of the atmosphere we examine the predictability of threshold exceedance events of certain observables. The likelihood of such binary events -- the cornerstone also for the categoric (as…
As part of an effort to develop a systematic methodology for earthquake forecasting, we use a simple model of seismicity based on interacting events which may trigger a cascade of earthquakes, known as the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence…
It is proposed that self-organisation (SO) in non-equilibrium systems is governed by a general principle: it emerges when a minute subset of system configurations are exceptionally stable and long-lived to survive the noise generated by the…
Scientific forecasting typically relies on direct state prediction, an approach that grows brittle under data scarcity, extended horizons, non-stationary dynamics, or high-dimensional complexity. While raw state trajectories are highly…
Self-organisation lies at the core of fundamental but still unresolved scientific questions, and holds the promise of de-centralised paradigms crucial for future technological developments. While self-organising processes have been…