Related papers: Formation of Space-Time Structure in a Forest-Fire…
The Drossel-Schwabl model of forest fires can be interpreted in a coarse grained sense as a model for the stress distribution in a single planar fault. Fires in the model are then translated to earthquakes. I show that when a second class…
We present a continuous time model of maturation and survival, obtained as the limit of a compartmental evolution model when the number of compartments tends to infinity. We establish in particular an explicit formula for the law of the…
Generalized statistical models of voids and hierarchical structure in cosmology are developed. The often quoted negative binomial model and frequently used thermodynamic model are shown to be special cases of a more general distribution…
Recent evidence suggests that nongenetic (epigenetic) mechanisms play an important role at all stages of cancer evolution. In many cancers, these mechanisms have been observed to induce dynamic switching between two or more cell states,…
A stochastic model for the energy of a flaring solar active region is presented, generalising and extending the approach of Wheatland & Glukhov (1998). The probability distribution for the free energy of an active region is described by the…
In this paper we investigate the acceleration of the expansion of premixed spherical flames and evolution of the cellular patterns on their surfaces. An asymptotic model is used for the simulations and a spectral numerical algorithm is…
The influence of the small scale ``cellular'' structure of premixed flames on their evolution at larger scales is investigated. A procedure of the space-time averaging of the flow variables over flame cells is introduced. It is proved that…
Wildfires pose a significant global threat to ecosystems worldwide, with California experiencing recurring fires due to various factors, including climate, topographical features, vegetation patterns, and human activities. This study aims…
The critical properties of a simple prey-predator model are revisited. For some values of the control parameters, the model exhibits a line of directed percolation like transitions to a single absorbing state. For other values of the…
We develop a three-timescale framework for modelling climate change and introduce a space-heterogeneous one-dimensional energy balance model. This model, addressing temperature fluctuations from rising carbon dioxide levels and the…
Probabilistic models can be defined by an energy function, where the probability of each state is proportional to the exponential of the state's negative energy. This paper considers a generalization of energy-based models in which the…
Many complex systems have been shown to share universal properties of organization, such as scale independence, modularity and self-similarity. We borrow tools from statistical physics in order to study structural preferential attachment…
Stochastic forecasting is critical for efficient decision-making in uncertain systems, such as energy markets and finance, where estimating the full distribution of future scenarios is essential. We propose Diffusion Scenario Tree (DST), a…
Stochastic chemical reaction or population dynamics in finite systems often terminates in an absorbing state. Yet in large spatially extended systems, the time to reach species extinction (or fixation) becomes exceedingly long. Tuning…
Real world systems typically feature a variety of different dependency types and topologies that complicate model selection for probabilistic graphical models. We introduce the ensemble-of-forests model, a generalization of the…
There is mounting empirical evidence that many communities of living organisms display key features which closely resemble those of physical systems at criticality. We here introduce a minimal model framework for the dynamics of a community…
We describe pattern formation in ecological systems using a version of the classical Lotka-Volterra model characterized by a spatial scale which controls the predator-prey interaction range. Analytical and simulational results show that…
Many forest management planning decisions are based on information about the number of trees by species and diameter per unit area. This information is commonly summarized in a stand table, where a stand is defined as a group of forest…
In this contribution we provide initial findings to the problem of modeling fuzzy rating responses in a psychometric modeling context. In particular, we study a probabilistic tree model with the aim of representing the stage-wise mechanisms…
We study a simple one-dimensional model of ballisticaly-controlled annihilation in which the two annihilating species are initially spatially separated. The time dependent properties of the annihilation front are exactly derived. It is…