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We present the analytic solution of the self-organized critical (SOC) forest-fire model in one dimension proving SOC in systems without conservation laws by analytic means. Under the condition that the system is in the steady state and very…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-10-22 Barbara Drossel , Siegfried Clar , Franz Schwabl

Fire is an indissoluble component of ecosystems, however quantifying the effects of fire on vegetation is challenging task as fire lies outside the typical experimental design attributes. A recent simulation study showed that under…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2014-12-16 Aristides Moustakas

Forest fires pose a natural threat with devastating social, environmental, and economic implications. The rapid and highly uncertain rate of spread of wildfires necessitates a trustworthy digital tool capable of providing real-time…

We review the properties of the self-organized critical (SOC) forest-fire model. The paradigm of self-organized criticality refers to the tendency of certain large dissipative systems to drive themselves into a critical state independent of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-08-31 Siegfried Clar , Barbara Drossel , Franz Schwabl

Place one active particle at the root of a graph and a Poisson-distributed number of dormant particles at the other vertices. Active particles perform simple random walk. Once the number of visits to a site reaches a random threshold, any…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-05-22 Matthew Junge , Zoe McDonald , Jean Pulla , Lily Reeves

We turn the stochastic critical forest-fire model introduced by Drossel and Schwabl (PRL 69, 1629, 1992) into a deterministic threshold model. This new model has many features in common with sandpile and earthquake models of Self-Organized…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 Proshun Sinha-Ray , Henrik Jeldtoft Jensen

Consider the following forest fire model where the possible locations of trees are the sites of $\mathbb{Z}$. Each site has three possible states: 'vacant', 'occupied' or 'burning'. Vacant sites become occupied at rate $1$. At each site,…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-03-13 Jean-Maxime Le Cousin

The one-dimensional forest-fire model including lightnings is studied numerically and analytically. For the tree correlation function, a new correlation length with critical exponent \nu ~ 5/6 is found by simulations. A Hamiltonian…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2015-02-24 A. Honecker , I. Peschel

Amongst the numerous models introduced with SOC, the Forest Fire Model (FFM) is particularly attractive for its close relationship to stochastic spreading, which is central to the study of systems as diverse as epidemics, rumours, or…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-05-14 Lorenzo Palmieri , Henrik Jeldtoft Jensen

Forecasting bushfire spread is an important element in fire prevention and response efforts. Empirical observations of bushfire spread can be used to estimate fire response under certain conditions. These observations form rate-of-spread…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-24 Andrew Bolt , Joel Janek Dabrowski , Carolyn Huston , Petra Kuhnert

The hierarchical system of forest ecosystem models based on the theory of individual-based (structured) models of populations and communities is briefly described. New self-thinning models are integrated with tree stand models within a…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2007-05-23 Georgy P. Karev

Wildfire is an important system process of the earth that occurs across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. A variety of methods have been used to predict wildfire phenomena during the past century to better our understanding of…

Applications · Statistics 2013-12-24 S. W. Taylor , Douglas G. Woolford , C. B. Dean , David L. Martell

This paper presents the development of a new continuous forest fire model implemented as a weighted local small-world network approach. This new approach was designed to simulate fire patterns in real, heterogeneous landscapes. The wildland…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2013-07-02 F. Aguayo , A. Fuentes , J. -P. Clerc , B. Porterie

Models for wildfires must be stochastic if their ability to represent wildfires is to be objectively assessed. The need for models to be stochastic emerges naturally from the physics of the fire, and methods for assessing fit are…

Computational Physics · Physics 2009-11-03 Jeffrey Picka

Because most natural phenomena exhibit dependence at multiple scales like locations of earthquakes or forest fire occurrences, spatio-temporal single-scale point process models are unrealistic in many applications. This motivates us to…

Applications · Statistics 2020-12-18 Morteza Raeisi , Florent Bonneu , Edith Gabriel

As wildfires are expected to become more frequent and severe, improved prediction models are vital to mitigating risk and allocating resources. With remote sensing data, valuable spatiotemporal statistical models can be created and used for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-30 Alissa Chavalithumrong , Hyung-Jin Yoon , Petros Voulgaris

Forest transitions, characterized by dynamic shifts between forest, agricultural, and abandoned lands, are complex phenomena. This study developed a stochastic differential equation model to capture the intricate dynamics of these…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-30 Satoshi Kumabe , Tianyu Song , Ton Viet Ta

We discuss the properties of a self--organized critical forest--fire model which has been introduced recently. We derive scaling laws and define critical exponents. The values of these critical exponents are determined by computer…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-10-22 S. Clar , B. Drossel , F. Schwabl

We include immunity against fire as a new parameter into the self-organized critical forest-fire model. When the immunity assumes a critical value, clusters of burnt trees are identical to percolation clusters of random bond percolation. As…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-10-22 Barbara Drossel , Siegfried Clar , Franz Schwabl

In this article we investigate the semiflow properties of a class of state-dependent delay differential equations which is motivated by some models describing the dynamics of the number of adult trees in forests. We investigate the…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2017-05-25 Pierre Magal , Zhengyang Zhang