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We investigate extreme value theory for physical systems with a global conservation law which describe renewal processes, mass transport models and long-range interacting spin models. As shown previously, a special feature is that the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-11-04 Marc Höll , Wanli Wang , Eli Barkai

In this article we show the relationship between the Pareto distribution and the gamma distribution. This shows that the second one, appropriately extended, explains some anomalies that arise in the practical use of extreme value theory.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-11-02 Joan del castillo , Jalila Daoudi , Isabel Serra

In this paper we discuss the problem of the estimation of extreme event occurrence probability for data drawn from some multifractal process. We also study the heavy (power-law) tail behavior of probability density function associated with…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-11 Jean-Francois Muzy , Emmanuel Bacry , Alexey Kozhemyak

We prove nonasymptotic matrix concentration inequalities for the spectral norm of (sub)gaussian random matrices with centered independent entries that capture fluctuations at the Tracy-Widom scale. This considerably improves previous bounds…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-03-21 Tatiana Brailovskaya , Ramon van Handel

The masses of data now available have opened up the prospect of discovering weak signals using machine-learning algorithms, with a view to predictive or interpretation tasks. As this survey of recent results attempts to show, bringing…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-06 Stephan Clémençon , Anne Sabourin

Let $\bY =\bR+\bX$ be an $M\times N$ matrix, where $\bR$ is a rectangular diagonal matrix and $\bX$ consists of $i.i.d.$ entries. This is a signal-plus-noise type model. Its signal matrix could be full rank, which is rarely studied in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-28 Zhixiang Zhang , Guangming Pan

Extreme value theory provides rigorous theory and statistical tools for extrapolation in machine learning, particularly in settings where traditional methods struggle due to data scarcity in the tails. A broad range of tasks benefit from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-05 Sebastian Engelke , Nicola Gnecco , Anne Sabourin

In random matrix theory (RMT), the Tracy-Widom (TW) distribution describes the behavior of the largest eigenvalue. We consider here two models in which TW undergoes transformations. In the first one disorder is introduced in the Gaussian…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-13 O. Bohigas , J. X. de Carvalho , M. P. Pato

It is shown that distributions arising in Renyi-Tsallis maximum entropy setting are related to the Generalized Pareto Distributions (GPD) that are widely used for modeling the tails of distributions. The relevance of such modelization, as…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2008-05-06 J. -F. Bercher , C. Vignat

We propose an approach to compute the conditional moments of fat-tailed phenomena that, only looking at data, could be mistakenly considered as having infinite mean. This type of problems manifests itself when a random variable Y has a…

Applications · Statistics 2018-08-02 Nassim Nicholas Taleb , Pasquale Cirillo

We discuss non-Gaussian random matrices whose elements are random variables with heavy-tailed probability distributions. In probability theory heavy tails of the distributions describe rare but violent events which usually have dominant…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2009-11-08 Z. Burda , J. Jurkiewicz

Rare events play a crucial role in understanding complex systems. Characterizing and analyzing them in scale-invariant situations is challenging due to strong correlations. In this work, we focus on characterizing the tails of probability…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-04-03 Ivan Balog , Bertrand Delamotte , Adam Rançon

We study the distribution of maxima (Extreme Value Statistics) for sequences of observables computed along orbits generated by random transformations. The underlying, deterministic, dynamical system can be regular or chaotic. In the former…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2015-06-11 Davide Faranda , Jorge Milhazes Freitas , Valerio Lucarini , Giorgio Turchetti , Sandro Vaienti

Applying a modification of Extreme value Theory (thanks to a dual distribution technique by the authors on data over the past 2,500 years, we show that pandemics are extremely fat-tailed in terms of fatalities, with a marked potentially…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-07-07 Pasquale Cirillo , Nassim Nicholas Taleb

We show central limit theorems (CLT) for the Stieltjes transforms or more general analytic functions of symmetric matrices with independent heavy tailed entries, including entries in the domain of attraction of $\alpha$-stable laws and…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-06-12 Florent Benaych-Georges , Alice Guionnet , Camille Male

We show that the probability of appearance of synchronisation in chaotic coupled map lattices is related to the distribution of the maximum of a certain observable evaluated along almost all orbit. We show that such distribution belongs to…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2018-04-10 D. Faranda , H. Ghoudi , P. Guiraud , S. Vaienti

In these lecture notes I will give a pedagogical introduction to some common aspects of 4 different problems: (i) random matrices (ii) the longest increasing subsequence problem (also known as the Ulam problem) (iii) directed polymers in…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 Satya N. Majumdar

Consider a real diagonal deterministic matrix $X_n$ of size $n$ with spectral measure converging to a compactly supported probability measure. We perturb this matrix by adding a random finite rank matrix, with delocalized eigenvectors. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-06-21 Florent Benaych-Georges , Alice Guionnet , Mylène Maïda

We study a family of distributions that arise in critical unitary random matrix ensembles. They are expressed as Fredholm determinants and describe the limiting distribution of the largest eigenvalue when the dimension of the random…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2011-11-16 Tom Claeys , Sheehan Olver

We study the statistics of the largest eigenvalue lambda_max of N x N random matrices with unit variance, but power-law distributed entries, P(M_{ij})~ |M_{ij}|^{-1-mu}. When mu > 4, lambda_max converges to 2 with Tracy-Widom fluctuations…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-25 Giulio Biroli , Jean-Philippe Bouchaud , Marc Potters
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