Related papers: Mean Escape Time in a System with Stochastic Volat…
This study provides a consistent and efficient pricing method for both Standard & Poor's 500 Index (SPX) options and the Chicago Board Options Exchange's Volatility Index (VIX) options under a multiscale stochastic volatility model. To…
The Black-Scholes implied volatility skew at the money of SPX options is known to obey a power law with respect to the time-to-maturity. We construct a model of the underlying asset price process which is dynamically consistent to the power…
In this paper, we introduce and analyze the fractional Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (BN-S) stochastic volatility model. The proposed model is based upon two desirable properties of the long-term variance process suggested by the empirical…
The emergence of the exit events from a bounded domain containing a stable fixed point induced by non-Gaussian L\'evy fluctuations plays a pivotal role in practical physical systems. In the limit of weak noise, we develop a Hamiltonian…
This paper presents a new prediction model for time series data by integrating a time-varying Geometric Brownian Motion model with a pricing mechanism used in financial engineering. Typical time series models such as Auto-Regressive…
We consider a mean-reverting stochastic volatility model which satisfies some relevant stylized facts of financial markets. We introduce an algorithm for the detection of peaks in the volatility profile, that we apply to the time series of…
We present a novel microscopic stock market model consisting of a large number of random agents modeling traders in a market. Each agent is characterized by a set of parameters that serve to make iterated predictions of two successive…
A control strategy is employed that modifies the stochastic escape times from one basin of attraction to another in a model of a double-gyre flow. The system studied captures the behavior of a large class of fluid flows that circulate and…
This paper models stochastic process of price time series of CSI 300 index in Chinese financial market, analyzes volatility characteristics of intraday high-frequency price data. In the new generalized Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard model,…
Transitions between multiple stable states of nonlinear systems are ubiquitous in physics, chemistry, and beyond. Two types of behaviors are usually seen as mutually exclusive: unpredictable noise-induced transitions and predictable…
In this paper, we relax the power parameter of instantaneous variance and develop a new stochastic volatility plus jumps model that generalize the Heston model and 3/2 model as special cases. This model has two distinctive features. First,…
We model time series of VIX (monthly average) and monthly stock index returns. We use log-Heston model: logarithm of VIX is modeled as an autoregression of order 1. Our main insight is that normalizing monthly stock index returns (dividing…
Keeping a basic tenet of economic theory, rational expectations, we model the nonlinear positive feedback between agents in the stock market as an interplay between nonlinearity and multiplicative noise. The derived hyperbolic stochastic…
We study the escape of Brownian motion from the domain of attraction $\Omega$ of a stable focus with a strong drift. The boundary $\partial \Omega$ of $\Omega$ is an unstable limit cycle of the drift and the focus is very close to the limit…
Stochastic dynamical systems allow modelling of transitions induced by disturbances, in particular from an attracting equilibrium and crossing the stable manifold of a saddle. In the small-noise limit, the probability of such transitions is…
It is a well established result that, in classical dynamical systems with sufficient time-scale separation, the fast chaotic degrees of freedom are well modeled by (Gaussian) white noise. In this paper, we present the stochastic dynamical…
Many phenomena in nature are described by excitable systems driven by colored noise. The temporal correlations in the fluctuations hinder an analytical treatment. We here present a general method of reduction to a white-noise system,…
In this note, by an elementary use of Girsanov's transform we show that the exit time for either a biased random walk or a drifted Brownian motion on a symmetric interval is stochastically monotone with respect to the drift parameter. In…
We consider a system of $ N \in \mathbb{N} $ mean-field interacting stochastic differential equations that are driven by a single-site potential of double-well form and by Brownian noise. The strength of the noise is measured by a small…
We provide a complete solution of the problems of the probability distribution and the escape rate in Poisson-noise driven systems. It includes both the exponents and the prefactors. The analysis refers to an overdamped particle in a…