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Explaining underlying causes or effects about events is a challenging but valuable task. We define a novel problem of generating explanations of a time series event by (1) searching cause and effect relationships of the time series with…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2018-04-26 Dongyeop Kang , Varun Gangal , Ang Lu , Zheng Chen , Eduard Hovy

In this paper, we propose a new Granger causality measure which is robust against the confounding influence of latent common inputs. This measure is inspired by partial Granger causality in the literature, and its variant. Using numerical…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-13 Takashi Arai

Granger causality is a statistical notion of causal influence based on prediction via vector autoregression. For Gaussian variables it is equivalent to transfer entropy, an information-theoretic measure of time-directed information transfer…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2021-02-17 Sebastiano Stramaglia , Tomas Scagliarini , Yuri Antonacci , Luca Faes

This paper is motivated by studies in neuroscience experiments to understand interactions between nodes in a brain network using different types of data modalities that capture different distinct facets of brain activity. To assess…

The interplay between causal mechanisms and emerging collective behaviors is a central aspect of understanding, controlling, and predicting complex networked systems. In our work, we investigate the relationship between higher-order…

Feedback control plays a central role in active matter, yet it is inevitably accompanied by noise and finite perception--action delays. This Perspective reviews recent advances on active systems with delayed interactions, showing how time…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2026-03-19 Viktor Holubec , Frank Cichos

Inferring causal relations from time series measurements is an ill-posed mathematical problem, where typically an infinite number of potential solutions can reproduce the given data. We explore in depth a strategy to disambiguate between…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2020-11-04 George Stepaniants , Bingni W. Brunton , J. Nathan Kutz

Identifying directed interactions between species from time series of their population densities has many uses in ecology. This key statistical task is equivalent to causal time series inference, which connects to the Granger causality (GC)…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-11-10 Frederic Barraquand , Coralie Picoche , Matteo Detto , Florian Hartig

We aim to explicitly model the delayed Granger causal effects based on multivariate Hawkes processes. The idea is inspired by the fact that a causal event usually takes some time to exert an effect. Studying this time lag itself is of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-14 Chao Yang , Hengyuan Miao , Shuang Li

Identifying the causal structure of systems with multiple dynamic elements is critical to several scientific disciplines. The conventional approach is to conduct statistical tests of causality, for example with Granger Causality, between…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-22 Jacek P. Dmochowski

The problem of estimating high-dimensional network models arises naturally in the analysis of many physical, biological and socio-economic systems. Examples include stock price fluctuations in financial markets and gene regulatory networks…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-10-09 Sumanta Basu , Ali Shojaie , George Michailidis

Neurons are connected to other neurons by axons and dendrites that conduct signals with finite velocities, resulting in delays between the firing of a neuron and the arrival of the resultant impulse at other neurons. Since delays greatly…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2021-08-25 Akke Mats Houben

Granger causal modeling is an emerging topic that can uncover Granger causal relationship behind multivariate time series data. In many real-world systems, it is common to encounter a large amount of multivariate time series data collected…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-11 Yunfei Chu , Xiaowei Wang , Jianxin Ma , Kunyang Jia , Jingren Zhou , Hongxia Yang

Granger causality has been employed to investigate causality relations between components of stationary multiple time series. We generalize this concept by developing statistical inference for local Granger causality for multivariate…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-12 Yan Liu , Masanobu Taniguchi , Hernando Ombao

We study the problem of learning Granger causality between event types from asynchronous, interdependent, multi-type event sequences. Existing work suffers from either limited model flexibility or poor model explainability and thus fails to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-20 Wei Zhang , Thomas Kobber Panum , Somesh Jha , Prasad Chalasani , David Page

Granger causality is well established within the neurosciences for inference of directed functional connectivity from neurophysiological data. These data usually consist of time series which subsample a continuous-time biophysiological…

Applications · Statistics 2016-09-08 Lionel Barnett , Anil K. Seth

Information flow provides a natural measure for the causal interaction between dynamical events. This study extends our previous rigorous formalism of componentwise information flow to the bulk information flow between two complex…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2021-12-30 X. San Liang

This paper contributes to the understanding of strongly coupled spatio-temporal processes by describing a generic method based on Granger causality. The method is validated by the robust identification of causality regimes and of their…

Applications · Statistics 2017-09-27 Juste Raimbault

Complex systems, such as brains, markets, and societies, exhibit internal dynamics influenced by external factors. Disentangling delayed external effects from internal dynamics within these systems is often challenging. We propose using a…

Granger causality is a statistical notion of causal influence based on prediction via vector autoregression. Developed originally in the field of econometrics, it has since found application in a broader arena, particularly in neuroscience.…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2015-05-14 Lionel Barnett , Adam B Barrett , Anil K. Seth