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Rare events are ubiquitous in many different fields, yet they are notoriously difficult to simulate because few, if any, events are observed in a conventiona l simulation run. Over the past several decades, specialised simulation methods…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-13 Rosalind J. Allen , Chantal Valeriani , Pieter Rein ten Wolde

We present three algorithms for calculating rate constants and sampling transition paths for rare events in simulations with stochastic dynamics. The methods do not require a priori knowledge of the phase space density and are suitable for…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-11-11 Rosalind J. Allen , Daan Frenkel , Pieter Rein ten Wolde

We present a method for computing stationary distributions for activated processes in equilibrium and non-equilibrium systems using Forward Flux Sampling (FFS). In this method, the stationary distributions are obtained directly from the…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-07-06 Chantal Valeriani , Rosalind J. Allen , Marco J. Morelli , Daan Frenkel , Pieter Rein ten Wolde

I give an overview of rare event simulation techniques to generate dynamical pathways across high free energy barriers. The methods on which I will concentrate are the reactive flux approach, transition path sampling, (replica-exchange)…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-03-17 Titus S. van Erp

Rare event simulation and estimation for systems in equilibrium are among the most challenging topics in molecular dynamics. As was shown by Jarzynski and others, nonequilibrium forcing can theoretically be used to obtain equilibrium rare…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-06-11 Carsten Hartmann , Christof Schütte

We briefly review simulation schemes for the investigation of rare transitions and we resume the recently introduced Transition Interface Sampling, a method in which the computation of rate constants is recast into the computation of fluxes…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-10 Daniele Moroni , Titus S. van Erp , Peter G. Bolhuis

We present a new method, Non-Stationary Forward Flux Sampling, that allows efficient simulation of rare events in both stationary and non-stationary stochastic systems. The method uses stochastic branching and pruning to achieve uniform…

Molecular Networks · Quantitative Biology 2015-06-03 Nils B. Becker , Rosalind J. Allen , Pieter Rein ten Wolde

Rare events are processes that occur upon the emergence of unlikely fluctuations. Unlike what their name suggests, rare events are fairly ubiquitous in nature, as the occurrence of many structural transformations in biology and material…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-02-26 Sarwar Hussain , Amir Haji-Akbari

We review two recently developed efficient methods for calculating rate constants of processes dominated by rare events in high-dimensional complex systems. The first is transition interface sampling (TIS), based on the measurement of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-10 Titus S. van Erp , Peter G. Bolhuis

We consider the general problem of estimating probabilities which arise as a union of dependent events. We propose a flexible series of estimators for such probabilities, and describe variance reduction schemes applied to the proposed…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-10-10 Lars Nørvang Andersen , Patrick J. Laub , Leonardo Rojas-Nandayapa

Many applications of computational fluid dynamics require multiple simulations of a flow under different input conditions. In this paper, a numerical algorithm is developed to efficiently determine a set of such simulations in which the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-05-29 Max Gunzburger , Nan Jiang , Zhu Wang

Active matter represents a broad class of systems that evolve far from equilibrium due to the local injection of energy. Like their passive analogues, transformations between distinct metastable states in active matter proceed through rare…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-01-17 Avishek Das , Benjamin Kuznets-Speck , David T. Limmer

Extreme events play a crucial role in fluid turbulence. Inspired by methods from field theory, these extreme events, their evolution and probability can be computed with help of the instanton formalism as minimizers of a suitable action…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2015-10-28 Tobias Grafke , Rainer Grauer , Stephan Schindel

Rare events are events that are expected to occur infrequently, or more technically, those that have low probabilities (say, order of $10^{-3}$ or less) of occurring according to a probability model. In the context of uncertainty…

Computation · Statistics 2015-08-21 James L. Beck , Konstantin M. Zuev

Extreme weather events epitomize high cost: to society through their physical impacts, and to computer servers that simulate them to assess risk and advance physical understanding. It costs hundreds of simulation years to sample a few…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-04-14 Justin Finkel , Paul A. O'Gorman

Solving decision problems in complex, stochastic environments is often achieved by estimating the expected outcome of decisions via Monte Carlo sampling. However, sampling may overlook rare, but important events, which can severely impact…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-16 Lachlan Gibson , Marcus Hoerger , Dirk Kroese

This paper considers the problem of simultaneously estimating rare-event probabilities for a class of Gaussian random fields. A conventional rare-event simulation method is usually tailored to a specific rare event and consequently would…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-08-31 Xiaoou Li , Gongjun Xu

The efficient calculation of rare-event kinetics in complex dynamical systems, such as the rate and pathways of ligand dissociation from a protein, is a generally unsolved problem. Markov state models can systematically integrate ensembles…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2016-02-03 Benjamin Trendelkamp-Schroer , Frank Noe

In this paper the computational aspects of probability calculations for dynamical partial sum expressions are discussed. Such dynamical partial sum expressions have many important applications, and examples are provided in the fields of…

Computation · Statistics 2017-12-14 Sorawit Saengkyongam , Anthony Hayter , Seksan Kiatsupaibul , Wei Liu

The present paper deals with the problem of improving the efficiency of large scale turbulent flow simulations. The high-fidelity methods for modelling turbulent flows become available for a wider range of applications thanks to the…

Computational Physics · Physics 2018-04-10 Boris Krasnopolsky
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