Related papers: Nonlinear parametric model for Granger causality o…
Granger Causality (GC) offers an elegant statistical framework to study the association between multivariate time series data. Vector autoregressive models (VAR) are simple and easy to fit, but have limited application because of their…
Nonlinear systems are capable of displaying complex behavior even if this is the result of a small number of interacting time scales. A widely studied case is when complex dynamics emerges out of a nonlinear system being forced by a simple…
We propose NonStGM, a general nonparametric graphical modeling framework for studying dynamic associations among the components of a nonstationary multivariate time series. It builds on the framework of Gaussian Graphical Models (GGM) and…
Standard regression adjustment gives inconsistent estimates of causal effects when there are time-varying treatment effects and time-varying covariates. Loosely speaking, the issue is that some covariates are post-treatment variables…
Hawkes (1971) introduced a powerful multivariate point process model of mutually exciting processes to explain causal structure in data. In this paper it is shown that the Granger causality structure of such processes is fully encoded in…
Multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting is an essential problem in many fields. Accurate forecasting results can effectively help decision-making. To date, many MTS forecasting methods have been proposed and widely applied. However,…
This article introduces a novel nonparametric methodology for Generalized Linear Models which combines the strengths of the binary regression and latent variable formulations for categorical data, while overcoming their disadvantages.…
This paper develops a general causal inference method for treatment effects models with noisily measured confounders. The key feature is that a large set of noisy measurements are linked with the underlying latent confounders through an…
Time-series data in population health and epidemiology often involve non-Gaussian responses. In this note, we propose a semiparametric generalized linear models framework for time-series data that does not require specification of a working…
Causality can be described in terms of a structural causal model (SCM) that carries information on the variables of interest and their mechanistic relations. For most processes of interest the underlying SCM will only be partially…
We propose the Granger causality inference Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANGCI), a novel architecture that extends the recently proposed Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KAN) to the domain of causal inference. By extracting base weights from KAN…
Identifying ``true causality'' is a fundamental challenge in complex systems research. Widely adopted methods, like the Granger causality test, capture statistical dependencies between variables rather than genuine driver-response…
We present a novel task that measures how people generalize objects' causal powers based on observing a single (Experiment 1) or a few (Experiment 2) causal interactions between object pairs. We propose a computational modeling framework…
We propose a novel framework for studying causal inference of gene interactions using a combination of compressive sensing and Granger causality techniques. The gist of the approach is to discover sparse linear dependencies between time…
We aim to explicitly model the delayed Granger causal effects based on multivariate Hawkes processes. The idea is inspired by the fact that a causal event usually takes some time to exert an effect. Studying this time lag itself is of…
In this paper, we introduce different concepts of Granger causality and contemporaneous correlation for multivariate stationary continuous-time processes to model different dependencies between the component processes. Several equivalent…
We consider the problem of learning models for forecasting multiple time-series systems together with discovering the leading indicators that serve as good predictors for the system. We model the systems by linear vector autoregressive…
In application domains such as healthcare, we want accurate predictive models that are also causally interpretable. In pursuit of such models, we propose a causal regularizer to steer predictive models towards causally-interpretable…
This paper considers how to classify the effects of interventions in causal models for outcomes and exposures observed over time. First, we demonstrate the limitations of the most common uses of potential outcomes and causal directed…
For non-randomized studies, the regression discontinuity design (RDD) can be used to identify and estimate causal effects from a "locally-randomized" subgroup of subjects, under relatively mild conditions. However, current models focus…