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A key requirement for the current generation of artificial decision-makers is that they should adapt well to changes in unexpected situations. This paper addresses the situation in which an AI for aerial dog fighting, with tunable…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-12-14 Brett W. Israelsen , Nisar Ahmed , Kenneth Center , Roderick Green , Winston Bennett

This paper studies recursive composite hypothesis testing in a network of sparsely connected agents. The network objective is to test a simple null hypothesis against a composite alternative concerning the state of the field, modeled as a…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2017-02-23 Anit Kumar Sahu , Soummya Kar

Calibrating Agent-Based Models (ABMs) is an important optimization problem for simulating the complex social systems, where the goal is to identify the optimal parameter of a given ABM by minimizing the discrepancy between the simulated…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2026-01-13 Boquan Jiang , Zhenhua Yang , Chenkai Wang , Muyao Zhong , Heping Fang , Peng Yang

Real life signals are in general non--stationary and non--linear. The development of methods able to extract their hidden features in a fast and reliable way is of high importance in many research fields. In this work we tackle the problem…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-10-26 Antonio Cicone , Haomin Zhou

In this paper, we extend our results on the univariate non-Gaussian Bayesian filter using power moments to the multivariate systems, which can be either linear or nonlinear. Doing this introduces several challenging problems, for example a…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-13 Guangyu Wu , Anders Lindquist

This work presents a data-driven method for learning low-dimensional time-dependent physics-based surrogate models whose predictions are endowed with uncertainty estimates. We use the operator inference approach to model reduction that…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-03-19 Shane A. McQuarrie , Anirban Chaudhuri , Karen E. Willcox , Mengwu Guo

The treatment of Hall-effect thrusters as nonlinear, dynamical systems has emerged as a new perspective to understand and analyze data acquired from the thrusters. The acquisition of high-speed data that can resolve the characteristic…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2024-08-14 Adrian S Wong , Christine M Greve , Daniel Q Eckhardt

A surrogate marker is a biomarker or other physical measurement used to replace a primary outcome in clinical trials to evaluate a treatment effect when the primary outcome of interest is costly, invasive, or takes a long time to observe.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-24 Emily Hsiao , Layla Parast

One method to solve expensive black-box optimization problems is to use a surrogate model that approximates the objective based on previous observed evaluations. The surrogate, which is cheaper to evaluate, is optimized instead to find an…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-05-28 Rickard Karlsson , Laurens Bliek , Sicco Verwer , Mathijs de Weerdt

Posterior sampling by Monte Carlo methods provides a more comprehensive solution approach to inverse problems than computing point estimates such as the maximum posterior using optimization methods, at the expense of usually requiring many…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-11-28 Paolo Villani , Daniel Andrés-Arcones , Jörg F. Unger , Martin Weiser

We propose a new approach for building recommender systems by adapting surrogate-assisted interactive genetic algorithms. A pool of user-evaluated items is used to construct an approximative model which serves as a surrogate fitness…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2019-08-09 Thomas Gabor , Philipp Altmann

Ensuring safety in industrial control systems usually involves imposing constraints at the design stage of the control algorithm. Enforcing constraints is challenging if the underlying functional form is unknown. The challenge can be…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-06-09 Marta Zagorowska , Efe C. Balta , Varsha Behrunani , Alisa Rupenyan , John Lygeros

The paper addresses Bayesian inferences in inverse problems with uncertainty quantification involving a computationally expensive forward map associated with solving a partial differential equations. To mitigate the computational cost, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-18 A. Galaviz , J. A. Christen , A. Capella

Inverse problems are prevalent in both scientific research and engineering applications. In the context of Bayesian inverse problems, sampling from the posterior distribution can be particularly challenging when the forward models are…

Computation · Statistics 2026-02-17 Zhihang Xu , Xiaoyu Zhu , Daoji Li , Qifeng Liao

Multi-agent simulations enables the modeling and analyses of the dynamic behaviors and interactions of autonomous entities evolving in complex environments. Agent-based models (ABM) are widely used to study emergent phenomena arising from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-20 Paul Saves , Nicolas Verstaevel , Benoît Gaudou

The complex and computationally expensive nature of landscape evolution models pose significant challenges in the inference and optimisation of unknown parameters. Bayesian inference provides a methodology for estimation and uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-30 Rohitash Chandra , Danial Azam , Arpit Kapoor , R. Dietmar Müller

In modern clinical trials, there is immense pressure to use surrogate markers in place of an expensive or long-term primary outcome to make more timely decisions about treatment effectiveness. However, using a surrogate marker to test for a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-22 Rebecca Knowlton , Layla Parast

Recently surrogate functions based on the tail inequalities were developed to evaluate the chance constraints in the context of evolutionary computation and several Pareto optimization algorithms using these surrogates were successfully…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-04-19 Xiankun Yan , Aneta Neumann , Frank Neumann

Recent breakthroughs in artificial intelligence (AI) are reshaping the way we construct computational counterparts of the brain, giving rise to a new class of ``surrogate brains''. In contrast to conventional hypothesis-driven biophysical…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2025-10-14 Yinuo Zhang , Demao Liu , Zhichao Liang , Jiani Cheng , Kexin Lou , Jinqiao Duan , Ting Gao , Bin Hu , Quanying Liu

Significant effort has been made to solve computationally expensive optimization problems in the past two decades, and various optimization methods incorporating surrogates into optimization have been proposed. Most research focuses on…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-04-11 Julian Blank , Kalyanmoy Deb
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