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We develop new methods to integrate experimental and observational data in causal inference. While randomized controlled trials offer strong internal validity, they are often costly and therefore limited in sample size. Observational data,…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-11-04 Xuelin Yang , Licong Lin , Susan Athey , Michael I. Jordan , Guido W. Imbens

Downward causation is self-causation, the causel effect from the whole to its parts, and is considered a promising theory for the problem of mental causation. However, it remains to be clarified how an irreducible but supervenient downward…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2024-10-28 Yoshiyuki Ohmura , Yasuo Kuniyoshi

With recent advances in natural language processing, rationalization becomes an essential self-explaining diagram to disentangle the black box by selecting a subset of input texts to account for the major variation in prediction. Yet,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-12 Wenbo Zhang , Tong Wu , Yunlong Wang , Yong Cai , Hengrui Cai

Causality is pivotal to our understanding of the world, presenting itself in different forms: information-theoretic and relativistic, the former linked to the flow of information, the latter to the structure of space-time. Leveraging a…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2026-04-13 Maarten Grothus , V. Vilasini

In both classical and quantum physics, irreversible processes are described by maps that contract the space of states. The change in volume has often been taken as a natural quantifier of the amount of irreversibility. In Bayesian…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-04-07 Lizhuo Liu , Clive Cenxin Aw

In papers published in the 25 years following his famous 1964 proof John Bell refined and reformulated his views on locality and causality. Although his formulations of local causality were in terms of probability, he had little to say…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2016-01-08 Richard A. Healey

Given two time series, can one tell, in a rigorous and quantitative way, the cause and effect between them? Based on a recently rigorized physical notion namely information flow, we arrive at a concise formula and give this challenging…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-03-27 X. San Liang

We start from the well-known form of the interval of the special relativity, stare it, and build up an attempt to implement the causality from it. Some features appear to be new, they involve the mass of the particle and the structure of…

High Energy Physics - Theory · Physics 2007-05-23 Ricardo Bentin

One of the basic aims in science is to unravel the chain of cause and effect of particular systems. Especially for large systems this can be a daunting task. Detailed interventional and randomized data sampling approaches can be used to…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-11-30 Seyed Mahdi Mahmoudi , Ernst Wit

Causal Learning has emerged as a major theme of research in statistics and machine learning in recent years, promising specific computational techniques to apply to datasets that reveal the true nature of cause and effect in a number of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-04 Vyacheslav Kungurtsev , Leonardo Christov Moore , Gustav Sir , Martin Krutsky

We consider the kinetic theory of dilute gases in the Boltzmann--Grad limit. We propose a new perspective based on a large deviation estimate for the probability of the empirical distribution dynamics. Assuming Boltzmann molecular chaos…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-08-26 Freddy Bouchet

In the field of road safety, it is common to use responsibility analyses to assess the effect of a given factor on the risk of being responsible for an accident, among drivers involved in an accident only. Even if this design is now widely…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-16 Marine Dufournet , Emilie Lanoy , Jean-Louis Martin , Vivian Viallon

Many legal cases require decisions about causality, responsibility or blame, and these may be based on statistical data. However, causal inferences from such data are beset by subtle conceptual and practical difficulties, and in general it…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-04-28 Philip Dawid , Monica Musio , Rossella Murtas

How should researchers analyze randomized experiments in which the main outcome is latent and measured in multiple ways but each measure contains some degree of error? We first identify a critical study-specific noncomparability problem in…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-13 Jiawei Fu , Donald P. Green

We describe a new class of models of quantum space-time based on energetic causal sets and show that under natural conditions space-time emerges from them. These are causal sets whose causal links are labelled by energy and momentum and…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2016-02-22 Marina Cortês , Lee Smolin

It is shown that the phenomenon of irreversibility in many-body and few-body systems can be explained and described within the framework of the concept of direct (not instantaneous) interaction of particles without using probabilistic…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-06-26 A. Yu. Zakharov

Causality lies at the heart of scientific inquiry, serving as the fundamental basis for understanding interactions among variables in physical systems. Despite its central role, current methods for causal inference face significant…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2025-05-19 Álvaro Martínez-Sánchez , Gonzalo Arranz , Adrián Lozano-Durán

From ancient philosophers to modern economists, biologists, and other researchers, there has been a continuous effort to unveil causal relations. The most formidable challenge lies in deducing the nature of the causal relationship: whether…

A fundamental challenge in causal inference with observational data is correct specification of a causal model. When there is model uncertainty, analysts may seek to use estimates from multiple candidate models that rely on distinct, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-03 Rohit Bhattacharya , Ina Ocelli , Ted Westling

The concept of causality has a controversial history. The question of whether it is possible to represent and address causal problems with probability theory, or if fundamentally new mathematics such as the do calculus is required has been…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-12-13 Finnian Lattimore , David Rohde