Related papers: How far away is the next earthquake?
By analyzing a southern California earthquake catalog, Davidsen and Paczuski [Phys. Rev. Lett. 94, 048501 (2005)] claim to have found evidence contradicting the theory of aftershock zone scaling in favor of scale-free statistics. We present…
Spatiotemporal properties of seismicity are investigated for a worldwide (WW) catalog and for Southern California in the stationary case (SC), showing a nearly universal scaling behavior. Distributions of distances between consecutive…
The statistical property of the calm times, i.e., time intervals between successive earthquakes with arbitrary values of magnitude, is studied by analyzing the seismic time series data in California and Japan. It is found that the calm…
In this paper, we explore the analogy between the refugees' drownings in the sea and the earthquakes' occurrences and focus on the aspect that characterizes the statistics of their spatial and temporal successions. The former is shown to…
We show that the distribution of waiting times between earthquakes occurring in California obeys a simple unified scaling law valid from tens of seconds to tens of years, see Eq. (1) and Fig. 4. The short time clustering, commonly referred…
A crucial point in the debate on feasibility of earthquake prediction is the dependence of an earthquake magnitude from past seismicity. Indeed, whilst clustering in time and space is widely accepted, much more questionable is the existence…
Scaling analysis reveals striking regularities in earthquake occurrence. The time between any one earthquake and that following it is random, but it is described by the same universal-probability distribution for any spatial region and…
We present two models for estimating the probabilities of future earthquakes in California, to be tested in the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). The first, time-independent model, modified from Helmstetter et…
Short and long range interactions between earthquakes are attracting increasing interest. Scale invariant properties of seismicity in time, space and energy argue for the presence of complex triggering mechanisms where, like a cascade…
Discovery of a new law for three dimensional spatial distance between the foci of successive earthquakes is reported. Analyzing the seismic data taken between 1984 and 2001 in southern California, it is found that the cumulative…
Spatiotemporal clustering of earthquake events is a generally-established fact, and is important for designing models and assessment techniques in seismicity. Here, we investigate how this behavior can manifest in the statistical…
Extending the central concept of recurrence times for a point process to recurrent events in space-time allows us to characterize seismicity as a record breaking process using only spatiotemporal relations among events. Linking record…
The statistical properties of the seismic time series data in southern California are studies. In particular, the calm time intervals, which are the time intervals between successive significant earthquakes above the fixed threshold value…
We analyze 21 aftershock sequences of California to test for evidence of space-time diffusion. Aftershock diffusion may result from stress diffusion and is also predicted by any mechanism of stress weakening. Here, we test an alternative…
Contrary to common belief, as the time since the last earthquake in a certain region increases, the risk of occurrence of another earthquake diminishes. As a consequence, the expected waiting time to the next event increases with the…
We study the statistics of the recurrence times between earthquakes above a certain magnitude M$ in California. We find that the distribution of the recurrence times strongly depends on the previous recurrence time $\tau_0$. As a…
The relation between seismic moment and fractured area is crucial to earthquake hazard analysis. Experimental catalogs show multiple scaling behaviors, with some controversy concerning the exponent value in the large earthquake regime.…
We propose a new metric to quantify the correlation between any two earthquakes. The metric consists of a product involving the time interval and spatial distance between two events, as well as the magnitude of the first one. According to…
It is shown that earthquakes do not know how large they will become, at least from the information collected at seismic catalogs. In other words, the magnitude is independent on previous magnitudes as well as on the waiting time between…
Using a catalog of seismicity for Southern California, we measure how the number of triggered earthquakes increases with the earthquake magnitude. The trade-off between this relation and the distribution of earthquake magnitudes controls…