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Reconstructing the equation of motion and thus the network topology of a system from time series is a very important problem. Although many powerful methods have been developed, it remains a great challenge to deal with systems in high…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2023-08-16 Zishuo Yan , Lili Gui , Kun Xu , Yueheng Lan

Motivated by recent progress in data assimilation, we develop an algorithm to dynamically learn the parameters of a chaotic system from partial observations. Under reasonable assumptions, we rigorously establish the convergence of this…

Classical Analysis and ODEs · Mathematics 2021-08-20 Elizabeth Carlson , Joshua Hudson , Adam Larios , Vincent R. Martinez , Eunice Ng , Jared P. Whitehead

An efficient technique is introduced for model inference of complex nonlinear dynamical systems driven by noise. The technique does not require extensive global optimization, provides optimal compensation for noise-induced errors and is…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 V. N. Smelyanskiy , D. A. Timucin , A. Bandrivskyy , D. G. Luchinsky

Reconstructing noise-driven nonlinear networks from time series of output variables is a challenging problem, which turns to be very difficult when nonlinearity of dynamics, strong noise impacts and low measurement frequencies jointly…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-10-20 Rundong Shi , Gang Hu , Shihong Wang

Learning and forecasting stochastic time series is essential in various scientific fields. However, despite the proposals of nonlinear filters and deep-learning methods, it remains challenging to capture nonlinear dynamics from a few noisy…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-21 Christian Donner , Anuj Mishra , Hideaki Shimazaki

We present an optimization process to estimate parameters in systems of ordinary differential equations from chaotic time series. The optimization technique is based on a variational approach, and numerical studies on noisy time series…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2014-07-31 Jose-Maria Fullana

Modeling real-world systems requires accounting for noise - whether it arises from unpredictable fluctuations in financial markets, irregular rhythms in biological systems, or environmental variability in ecosystems. While the behavior of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-08 Matteo Bosso , Giovanni Franzese , Kushal Swamy , Maarten Theulings , Alejandro M. Aragón , Farbod Alijani

The problem of reconstructing nonlinear and complex dynamical systems from measured data or time series is central to many scientific disciplines including physical, biological, computer, and social sciences, as well as engineering and…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2017-05-01 Wenxu Wang , Ying-Cheng Lai , Celso Grebogi

We consider the problem of learning the parameters of a $N$-dimensional stochastic linear dynamics under both full and partial observations from a single trajectory of time $T$. We introduce and analyze a new estimator that achieves a small…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-08 Minh Vu , Andrey Y. Lokhov , Marc Vuffray

We derive an efficient stochastic algorithm for inverse problems that present an unknown linear forcing term and a set of nonlinear parameters to be recovered. It is assumed that the data is noisy and that the linear part of the problem is…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-09-17 Darko Volkov

Time-varying linear state-space models are powerful tools for obtaining mathematically interpretable representations of neural signals. For example, switching and decomposed models describe complex systems using latent variables that evolve…

We study filtering of multiscale dynamical systems with model error arising from unresolved smaller scale processes. The analysis assumes continuous-time noisy observations of all components of the slow variables alone. For a linear model…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2014-12-03 Tyrus Berry , John Harlim

We consider the task of learning a dynamical system from high-dimensional time-course data. For instance, we might wish to estimate a gene regulatory network from gene expression data measured at discrete time points. We model the dynamical…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-12 Shizhe Chen , Ali Shojaie , Daniela M. Witten

This paper introduces new techniques for using convex optimization to fit input-output data to a class of stable nonlinear dynamical models. We present an algorithm that guarantees consistent estimates of models in this class when a small…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2013-03-19 Mark M. Tobenkin , Ian R. Manchester , Alexandre Megretski

We present a noise guided trajectory based system identification method for inferring the dynamical structure from observation generated by stochastic differential equations. Our method can handle various kinds of noise, including the case…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-03-06 Ziheng Guo , Igor Cialenco , Ming Zhong

We present a deep neural network for a model-free prediction of a chaotic dynamical system from noisy observations. The proposed deep learning model aims to predict the conditional probability distribution of a state variable. The Long…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-10-05 Kyongmin Yeo

Logistic regression is a well-known statistical model which is commonly used in the situation where the output is a binary random variable. It has a wide range of applications including machine learning, public health, social sciences,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-04-18 Bernard Bercu , Antoine Godichon-Baggioni , Bruno Portier

This paper presents an efficient algorithm for robust network reconstruction of Linear Time-Invariant (LTI) systems in the presence of noise, estimation errors and unmodelled nonlinearities. The method here builds on previous work on robust…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2016-11-18 David Hayden , Ye Yuan , Jorge Gonçalves

Empirically observed time series in physics, biology, or medicine, are commonly generated by some underlying dynamical system (DS) which is the target of scientific interest. There is an increasing interest to harvest machine learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-07 Daniel Kramer , Philine Lou Bommer , Carlo Tombolini , Georgia Koppe , Daniel Durstewitz

The identification of states and parameters from noisy measurements of a dynamical system is of great practical significance and has received a lot of attention. Classically, this problem is expressed as optimization over a class of models.…

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