Related papers: Bridging the ARCH model for finance and nonextensi…

In this paper the class of ARCH$(\infty)$ models is generalized to the nonstationary class of ARCH$(\infty)$ models with time-varying coefficients. For fixed time points, a stationary approximation is given leading to the notation ``locally…

We address the problem of applying the Kolmogorov-Sinai method of entropic analysis, expressed in a generalized non-extensive form, to the dynamics of the logistic map at the chaotic threshold, which is known to be characterized by a power…

Inference is a versatile tool that underlies scientific discovery, machine learning, and everyday decision-making: it describes how an agent updates a probability distribution as partial information is acquired from multiple measurements,…

The non-Gaussian quasi maximum likelihood estimator is frequently used in GARCH models with intension to improve the efficiency of the GARCH parameters. However, unless the quasi-likelihood happens to be the true one, non-Gaussian QMLE…

Consider a regression model with fixed design and Gaussian noise where the regression function can potentially be well approximated by a function that admits a sparse representation in a given dictionary. This paper resorts to exponential…

In this article, we discuss a novel greedy algorithm for the recovery of compressive sampled signals under noisy conditions. Most of the greedy recovery algorithms proposed in the literature require sparsity of the signal to be known or…

Discrimination between non-stationarity and long-range dependency is a difficult and long-standing issue in modelling financial time series. This paper uses an adaptive spectral technique which jointly models the non-stationarity and…

We perform the Bayesian inference of a GARCH model by the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm with an adaptive proposal density. The adaptive proposal density is assumed to be the Student's t-distribution and the distribution parameters are…

This paper proposes a novel conditional heteroscedastic time series model by applying the framework of quantile regression processes to the ARCH(\infty) form of the GARCH model. This model can provide varying structures for conditional…

We consider the analysis of continuous repeated measurement outcomes that are collected through time, also known as longitudinal data. A standard framework for analysing data of this kind is a linear Gaussian mixed-effects model within…

Inference for GP models with non-Gaussian noises is computationally expensive when dealing with large datasets. Many recent inference methods approximate the posterior distribution with a simpler distribution defined on a small number of…

Price range contains important information about the asset volatility, and has long been considered an important indicator for it. In this paper, we propose to jointly model the [low, high] price range as a random interval and introduce an…

It is common for long financial time series to exhibit gradual change in the unconditional volatility. We propose a new model that captures this type of nonstationarity in a parsimonious way. The model augments the volatility equation of a…

Many physicists think that the maximum entropy formalism is a straightforward application of Bayesian statistical ideas to statistical mechanics. Some even say that statistical mechanics is just the general Bayesian logic of inductive…

This paper tackles the problem of missing data imputation for noisy and non-Gaussian data. A classical imputation method, the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm for Gaussian mixture models, has shown interesting properties when…

For many financial applications, it is important to have reliable and tractable models for the behavior of assets and indexes, for example in risk evaluation. A successful approach is based on ARCH processes, which strike the right balance…

This note studies a method for the efficient estimation of a finite number of unknown parameters from linear equations, which are perturbed by Gaussian noise. In case the unknown parameters have only few nonzero entries, the proposed…

This paper introduces a novel Ito diffusion process to model high-frequency financial data, which can accommodate low-frequency volatility dynamics by embedding the discrete-time non-linear exponential GARCH structure with log-integrated…

A time-varying zero-inflated serially dependent Poisson process is proposed. The model assumes that the intensity of the Poisson Process evolves according to a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) formulation. The…

Exponential families are widely used in machine learning, including many distributions in continuous and discrete domains (e.g., Gaussian, Dirichlet, Poisson, and categorical distributions via the softmax transformation). Distributions in…