Related papers: Time-Decreasing Hazard and Increasing Time until t…
The problem of detecting the presence of a signal that can lead to a disaster is studied. A decision-maker collects data sequentially over time. At some point in time, called the change point, the distribution of data changes. This change…
Volcanic seismicity at Mt. Etna is studied. It is found that the associated stochastic process exhibits a subdiffusive phenomenon. The jump probability distribution well obeys an exponential law, whereas the waiting-time distribution…
The local when earthquake prediction is based on the connection between geomagnetic quakes and the next incoming minimum or maximum of tidal gravitational potential. The probability time window for the predicted earthquake is for the tidal…
Using a catalog of seismicity for Southern California, we measure how the number of triggered earthquakes increases with the earthquake magnitude. The trade-off between this relation and the distribution of earthquake magnitudes controls…
By analyzing the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) seismic catalog for different tectonic settings, we have found that the probability distributions of time intervals between successive earthquakes --interoccurrence times-- can be described…
This paper provides theoretical and practical arguments regarding the possibility of predicting strong and major earthquakes worldwide. Many strong and major earthquakes can be predicted at least two to five months in advance, based on…
The origin of earthquake has long been recognized as resulting from strike-slip instability of plate tectonics along the fault lines. Several events of earthquake around the globe have happened which cannot be explained by this theory. In…
In the standard rebound theory of earthquakes, elastic deformation energy is progressively stored in the crust until a threshold is reached at which it is suddenly released in an earthquake. We review three important paradoxes, the strain…
We consider two issues related to the 2011 Tohoku mega-earthquake: (1) what is the repeat time for the largest earthquakes in this area, and (2) what are the possibilities of numerical short-term forecasts during the 2011 earthquake…
Predicting earthquakes is of the utmost importance, especially to those countries of high risk, and although much effort has been made, it has yet to be realised. Nevertheless, there is a paucity of statistical approaches in seismic studies…
``Remote triggering" refers to the inducement of earthquakes by weak perturbations that emanate from far away sources, typically intense earthquakes that happen at much larger distances than their nearby aftershocks, sometimes even around…
The two-fractal overlap model of earthquake shows that the contact area distribution of two fractal surfaces follows power law decay in many cases and this agrees with the Guttenberg-Richter power law. Here, we attempt to predict the large…
We construct a classification model that predicts if an earthquake with the magnitude above a threshold will take place at a given location in a time range 30-180 days from a given moment of time. A common approach is to use expert…
It is useful to consider the earthquakes in terms of catastrophe theory. In the paper, we illustrate this statement by analysis foreshocks preceding the strong earthquakes. We focused on the so-called catastrophe flags, and on the triggers…
It has been shown [Phys. Rev. E 84, 022101 (2011); Chaos 22, 023123 (2012)] that earthquakes of magnitude $M$ greater or equal to 7 are globally correlated. Such correlations were identified by studying the variance $\kappa_1$ of natural…
Speech is a distinctive complex feature of human capabilities. In order to understand the physics underlying speech production, in this work we empirically analyse the statistics of large human speech datasets ranging several languages. We…
We consider three questions related to the 2011 Tohoku mega-earthquake: (1) Why was the event size so grossly under-estimated? (2) How should we evaluate the chances of giant earthquakes in subduction zones? and (3) What is the repeat time…
A conjecture on imminent earthquake prediction is presented. Drastic geological deformations of crustal rock strata taking place immediately (hours/days) before an earthquake may cause fast air or gas emission/absorption vertically in…
The understanding of long-distance relations between seismic activities has for long been of interest to seismologists and geologists. In this paper we have used data from the world-wide earthquake catalog for the period between 1972 and…
The decay pattern of aftershocks in the so-called 'coherent-noise' models [M. E. J. Newman and K. Sneppen, Phys. Rev. E54, 6226 (1996)] is studied in detail. Analytical and numerical results show that the probability to find a large event…