Related papers: Endogenous Versus Exogenous Shocks in Complex Netw…
Are large biological extinctions such as the Cretaceous/Tertiary KT boundary due to a meteorite, extreme volcanic activity or self-organized critical extinction cascades? Are commercial successes due to a progressive reputation cascade or…
We present an extensive study of the foreshock and aftershock signatures accompanying peaks of book sales. The time series of book sales are derived from the ranking system of Amazon.com. We present two independent ways of classifying…
In this paper, we analyze the response of music and book sales to an external field and to buyer herding. We distinguish endogenous and exogenous shocks. We focus on some case studies, whose data have been collected from ranking on…
Synchronising a database of stock specific news with 5 years worth of order book data on 300 stocks, we show that abnormal price movements following news releases (exogenous) exhibit markedly different dynamical features from those arising…
There is empirical evidence from a range of disciplines that as the connectivity of a network increases, we observe an increase in the average fitness of the system. But at the same time, there is an increase in the proportion of…
Systems with long-range persistence and memory are shown to exhibit different precursory as well as recovery patterns in response to shocks of exogeneous versus endogeneous origins. By endogeneous, we envision either fluctuations resulting…
The role of topological heterogeneity in the origin of extreme events in a network is investigated here. The dynamics of the oscillators associated with the nodes are assumed to be identical and influenced by mean-field repulsive…
The control and risk assessment in complex information systems require to take into account extremes arising from nodes with large node degrees. Various sampling techniques like a Page Rank random walk, a Metropolis-Hastings Markov chain…
Cascades of events and extreme occurrences have garnered significant attention across diverse domains such as financial markets, seismology, and social physics. Such events can stem either from the internal dynamics inherent to the system…
There is a commonality among contagious diseases, tweets, urban crimes, nuclear reactions, and neuronal firings that past events facilitate the future occurrence of events. The spread of events has been extensively studied such that the…
This paper explores the mechanisms behind extreme financial events, specifically market crashes, by employing the theoretical framework of phase transitions. We focus on endogenous crashes, driven by internal market dynamics, and model…
Complex systems universally exhibit emergence, where macroscopic dynamics arise from local interactions, but a predictive law governing this process has been absent. We establish and verify such a law. We define a system's causal power at a…
The statistical properties of an ecosystem composed of species interacting via pairwise, random interactions and deterministic, concentration limiting self-interaction are studied analytically with tools of equilibrium statistical mechanics…
We extend the scope of the dynamical theory of extreme values to cover phenomena that do not happen instantaneously, but evolve over a finite, albeit unknown at the onset, time interval. We consider complex dynamical systems, composed of…
Extreme events are emergent phenomena in multi-particle transport processes on complex networks. In practice, such events could range from power blackouts to call drops in cellular networks to traffic congestion on roads. All the earlier…
External or internal shocks may lead to the collapse of a system consisting of many agents. If the shock hits only one agent initially and causes it to fail, this can induce a cascade of failures among neighoring agents. Several critical…
Complex systems performing spiking dynamics are widespread in Nature. They cover from earthquakes, to neurons, variable stars, social networks, or stock markets. Understanding and characterizing their dynamics is relevant in order to detect…
We notice signatures of extreme events-like behavior in a laser based Ikeda map. The trajectory of the system occasionally travels a large distance away from the bounded chaotic region, which appears as intermittent spiking events in the…
Many time series in natural and social sciences can be seen as resulting from an interplay between exogenous influences and an endogenous organization. We use a simple (ETAS) model of events occurring sequentially, in which future events…
The occurrence of new events in a system is typically driven by external causes and by previous events taking place inside the system. This is a general statement, applying to a range of situations including, more recently, to the activity…