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Physical concepts developed to describe instabilities in traffic flows can be generalized in a way that allows one to understand the well-known instability of supply chains (the so-called ``bullwhip effect''). That is, small variations in…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 Dirk Helbing

Physical concepts developed to describe instabilities in traffic flows can be generalized in a way that allows one to understand the well-known instability of supply chains (the so-called ``bullwhip effect''). That is, small variations in…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-10 Dirk Helbing

We show how to treat supply networks as physical transport problems governed by balance equations and equations for the adaptation of production speeds. Although the non-linear behaviour is different, the linearized set of coupled…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 Dirk Helbing , Stefan Lammer , Thomas Seidel , Petr Seba , Tadeusz Platkowski

Network theory is rapidly changing our understanding of complex systems, but the relevance of topological features for the dynamic behavior of metabolic networks, food webs, production systems, information networks, or cascade failures of…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2007-05-23 Dirk Helbing , Stefan Lämmer

Supply chain management and inventory control provide most exciting examples of control systems with delays. Here, Smith predictors, model-free control and new time series forecasting techniques are mixed in order to derive an efficient…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2021-01-07 Koussaila Hamiche , Michel Fliess , Cédric Join , Hassane Abouaïssa

In this article we want to review the research state on the bullwhip effect in supply chains with stochastic lead times and give a contribution to quantifying the bullwhip effect. We analyze the models quantifying the bullwhip effect in…

Applications · Statistics 2015-03-23 Zbigniew Michna , Peter Nielsen , Izabela Ewa Nielsen

Supply Chain operation is an integrated business process starting from primary supplier to end user and the process produce products, services and information. A successful chain will explore technology, lean operations, and quality…

Other Computer Science · Computer Science 2011-11-04 Bidyut Biman Sarkar , Sugata Sanyal , Nabendu Chaki

The progressive amplification of fluctuations in demand as the demand travels upstream the supply chains is known as the bullwhip effect. We first analytically characterize the bullwhip effect in general supply chain networks in two cases:…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-08-10 Jin-Zhu Yü , Chencheng Cai , Jianxi Gao

The transport of products between different suppliers or production units can be described similarly to driven many-particle and traffic systems. We introduce equations for the flow of goods in supply networks and the adaptation of…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2009-09-29 Dirk Helbing

The measure of the bullwhip effect, a phenomenon in which demand variability increases as one moves up the supply chain, is a major issue in Supply Chain Management. Although it is simply defined (it is the ratio of the unconditional…

Applications · Statistics 2010-10-20 Marlene Silva Marchena

In this article we quantify the bullwhip effect (the variance amplification in replenishment orders) when demands and lead times are predicted in a simple two-stage supply chain with one supplier and one retailer. In recent research the…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-07-30 Zbigniew Michna , Peter Nielsen

Disasters and disruptions such as the COVID-19 pandemic can significantly interrupt supply chains and industries. To control these disruptions, decision-makers must focus on supply chain resiliency. This paper proposes a multi-stage,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-03-06 Hossein Mirzaee , Hamed Samarghandi , Keith Willoughby

Supply chain management faces significant challenges, including demand fluctuations, inventory imbalances, and amplified upstream order variability due to the bullwhip effect. Traditional methods, such as simple moving averages, struggle to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-11-17 Chunan Tong

Demand forecasting based on empirical data is a viable approach for optimizing a supply chain. However, in this approach, a model constructed from past data occasionally becomes outdated due to long-term changes in the environment, in which…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-09-07 Takahiro Ezaki , Naoto Imura , Katsuhiro Nishinari

Stochastic feedback systems give rise to a variety of notions of stability. The conditions for the stability of the median, mean, and variance stability conditions differ. These conditions can be stated explicitly for scalar discrete-time…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-12-19 Roy S. Smith , Bassam Bamieh

Supply chain disruptions cause shortages of raw material and products. To increase resilience, i.e., the ability to cope with shocks, substituting goods in established supply chains can become an effective alternative to creating new…

General Economics · Economics 2024-01-25 Ambra Amico , Luca Verginer , Giona Casiraghi , Giacomo Vaccario , Frank Schweitzer

Multi-step-ahead forecasts are often updated as new observations become available, since shorter forecast horizons typically improve forecast quality. However, such improvements come at the cost of forecast instability, i.e., variability in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-28 Jente Van Belle , Honglin Wen , Wouter Verbeke , Pierre Pinson

This survey paper deals with the stabilization of nonlinear systems by analyzing the controlling method in terms of state feedback and output feedback. A brief overview of some literature on how the feedback controller of some dynamic…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-01-03 Demelash Abiye Deguale

We consider the modeling, stability analysis and controller design problems for discrete-time LTI systems with state feedback, when the actuation signal is subject to switching propagation delays, due to e.g. the routing in a multi-hop…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2014-01-09 R. M. Jungers , A. D'Innocenzo , M. D. Di Benedetto

When a system has more than one stable state, how can the stability of these states be compared? This deceptively simple question has important consequences for ecosystems, because systems with alternative stable states can undergo dramatic…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-10-26 Ben C. Nolting , Karen C. Abbott
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