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Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have shown promising performance for language modeling. However, traditional training of RNNs using back-propagation through time often suffers from overfitting. One reason for this is that stochastic…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2017-04-25 Zhe Gan , Chunyuan Li , Changyou Chen , Yunchen Pu , Qinliang Su , Lawrence Carin

We consider artificial neurons which will update their weight coefficients with an internal rule based on backpropagation, rather than using it as an external training procedure. To achieve this we include the backpropagation error estimate…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2018-08-07 M. N. Nazarov

In this paper we study empirically the Forward Rate Curve (FRC) of 5 different currencies. We confirm and extend the findings of our previous investigation of the U.S. Forward Rate Curve. In particular, the average FRC follows a square-root…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2007-05-23 Andrew Matacz , Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

We consider the problem of predicting human players' actions in repeated strategic interactions. Our goal is to predict the dynamic step-by-step behavior of individual players in previously unseen games. We study the ability of neural…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2019-11-11 Yoav Kolumbus , Gali Noti

We first show that there are in fact triangular arbitrage opportunities in the spot foreign exchange markets, analyzing the time dependence of the yen-dollar rate, the dollar-euro rate and the yen-euro rate. Next, we propose a model of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-07 Yukihiro Aiba , Naomichi Hatano , Hideki Takayasu , Kouhei Marumo , Tokiko Shimizu

We develop new algorithms for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects, combining recent developments in transfer learning for neural networks with insights from the causal inference literature. By taking advantage of transfer learning,…

Banks are interested in evaluating the risk of the financial distress before giving out a loan. Many researchers proposed the use of models based on the Neural Networks in order to help the banker better make a decision. The objective of…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2013-11-19 Younes Boujelbène , Sihem Khemakhem

Time series forecasting is important across various domains for decision-making. In particular, financial time series such as stock prices can be hard to predict as it is difficult to model short-term and long-term temporal dependencies…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-12 Zhen Zeng , Rachneet Kaur , Suchetha Siddagangappa , Saba Rahimi , Tucker Balch , Manuela Veloso

Recent advances in computing power and the potential to make more realistic assumptions due to increased flexibility have led to the increased prevalence of simulation models in economics. While models of this class, and particularly…

General Economics · Economics 2019-06-12 Donovan Platt

Financial institutions obtain enormous amounts of data about user transactions and money transfers, which can be considered as a large graph dynamically changing in time. In this work, we focus on the task of predicting new interactions in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-24 Valentina Shumovskaia , Kirill Fedyanin , Ivan Sukharev , Dmitry Berestnev , Maxim Panov

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have been extraordinarily successful for prediction with sequential data. To tackle highly variable and noisy real-world data, we introduce Particle Filter Recurrent Neural Networks (PF-RNNs), a new RNN…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-03 Xiao Ma , Peter Karkus , David Hsu , Wee Sun Lee

With increasing competition and pace in the financial markets, robust forecasting methods are becoming more and more valuable to investors. While machine learning algorithms offer a proven way of modeling non-linearities in time series,…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-07-09 Lukas Ryll , Sebastian Seidens

Throughout the past year, Turkey's central bank policy to decrease the nominal interest rate has caused episodes of severe fluctuations in Turkish lira exchange rates. According to these conditions, the daily return of the USD/TRY have…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-02-20 Mostafa R. Sarkandiz

This study introduces a novel approach for EUR/USD exchange rate forecasting that integrates deep learning, textual analysis, and particle swarm optimization (PSO). By incorporating online news and analysis texts as qualitative data, the…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-06-30 Hongcheng Ding , Xiangyu Shi , Ruiting Deng , Salaar Faroog , Deshinta Arrova Dewi , Shamsul Nahar Abdullah , Bahiah A Malek

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are types of artificial neural networks (ANNs) that are well suited to forecasting and sequence classification. They have been applied extensively to forecasting univariate financial time series, however…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2017-07-19 Matthew F Dixon

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) provide state-of-the-art performance in processing sequential data but are memory intensive to train, limiting the flexibility of RNN models which can be trained. Reversible RNNs---RNNs for which the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-10-26 Matthew MacKay , Paul Vicol , Jimmy Ba , Roger Grosse

This article proposed a hybrid detrended deconvolution foreign exchange network construction method (DDFEN), which combined the detrended cross-correlation analysis coefficient (DCCC) and the network deconvolution method together. DDFEN is…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-08-24 Pengfei Xi , Shiyang Lai , Xueying Wang , Weiqiang Huang

In this paper, the prediction capabilities of recurrent neural networks are assessed in the low-order model of near-wall turbulence by Moehlis {\it et al.} (New J. Phys. {\bf 6}, 56, 2004). Our results show that it is possible to obtain…

We use techniques from network science to study correlations in the foreign exchange (FX) market over the period 1991--2008. We consider an FX market network in which each node represents an exchange rate and each weighted edge represents a…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2010-04-13 Daniel J. Fenn , Mason A. Porter , Peter J. Mucha , Mark McDonald , Stacy Williams , Neil F. Johnson , Nick S. Jones

With technological advancements and the exponential growth of data, we have been unfolding different capabilities of neural networks in different sectors. In this paper, I have tried to use a specific type of Neural Network known as…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2021-06-04 Kunal Bhardwaj