Related papers: Stochastic Modelling Approach to the Incubation Ti…
We present a theory for the laboratory and epidemiological data for incubation times in infectious prion diseases. The central feature of our model is that slow growth of misfolded protein-aggregates from small initial seeds controls the…
We simulate a two-dimensional, lattice based, protein-level statistical mechanical model for prion diseases (e.g., Mad Cow disease) with concommitant prion protein misfolding and aggregation. Our simulations lead us to the hypothesis that…
Prion diseases are invariably fatal neurodegenerative diseases that affect humans and animals. Unlike most other amyloid forming neurodegenerative diseases, these can be highly infectious. Prion diseases occur in a variety of species. They…
Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) is a rapidly progressive and fatal neurodegenerative disease, that causes approximately 350 deaths in the United States every year. In specific, it is a prion disease that is caused by a misfolded prion…
Prion diseases or called transmissible spongiform encephalopathies are fatal neurodegenerative diseases characterised by the accumulation of an abnormal prion protein isoform (rich in beta-sheets - about 30% alpha-helix and 43% beta-sheet),…
Many neurodegenerative diseases are related to the propagation and accumulation of toxic proteins throughout the brain. The lesions created by aggregates of these toxic proteins further lead to cell death and accelerated tissue atrophy. A…
Bovine spongiform encephalopathy, otherwise known as mad cow disease, can spread when an individual cow consumes feed containing the infected tissues of another individual, forming a one-species feedback loop. Such feedback is the primary…
The incubation period of a disease is the time between an initiating pathologic event and the onset of symptoms. For typhoid fever, polio, measles, leukemia and many other diseases, the incubation period is highly variable. Some affected…
Many events in the vertebrate immune system are influenced by some element of chance. The objective of the present work is to describe affinity maturation of B lymphocytes (in which random events are perhaps the most characteristic), and to…
Epidemic models are used to analyze the progression or outcome of an epidemic under different control policies like vaccinations, quarantines, lockdowns, use of face-masks, pharmaceutical interventions, etc. When these models accurately…
In the template-assistance model, normal prion protein (PrPC), the pathogenic cause of prion diseases such as Creutzfeldt-Jakob (CJD) in human, Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) in cow, and scrapie in sheep, converts to infectious…
The importation and subsequent establishment of novel pathogenic strains in a population is subject to a large degree of uncertainty due to the stochastic nature of the disease dynamics. Mathematical models need to take this stochasticity…
In Part 1, we introduced a stochastic model of an infectious disease, based on the BDI (birth and death with immigration) process. We showed that random processes defined by this model can capture the essence of the stochastic, often…
Prion diseases are invariably fatal and highly infectious neurodegenerative diseases affecting humans and animals. The neurodegenerative diseases such as Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease, variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob diseases,…
Why are the epidemic patterns of COVID-19 so different among different cities or countries which are similar in their populations, medical infrastructures, and people's behavior? Why are forecasts or predictions made by so-called experts…
We consider a time-inhomogeneous diffusion process able to describe the dynamics of infected people in a susceptible-infectious epidemic model in which the transmission intensity function is time-dependent. Such a model is well suited to…
Stochastic infectious disease models capture uncertainty in public health outcomes and have become increasingly popular in epidemiological practice. However, calibrating these models to observed data is challenging with existing methods for…
We extend our BDI (birth-death-immigration) process based stochastic model of an infectious disease to time-nonhomogeneous cases. First, we discuss the deterministic model, and derive the expected value of the infection process. Then as an…
This paper presents a probabilistic model for reasoning about the state of a system as it changes over time, both due to exogenous and endogenous influences. Our target domain is a class of medical prediction problems that are neither so…
Epidemics are inherently stochastic, and stochastic models provide an appropriate way to describe and analyse such phenomena. Given temporal incidence data consisting of, for example, the number of new infections or removals in a given time…