Related papers: Endogenous versus Exogenous Crashes in Financial M…
Starting on February 20, 2020, the global stock markets began to suffer the worst decline since the Great Recession in 2008, and the COVID-19 has been widely blamed on the stock market crashes. In this study, we applied the log-periodic…
Drawdowns are essential aspects of risk assessment in investment management. They offer a more natural measure of real market risks than the variance or other cumulants of daily (or some other fixed time scale) distributions of returns.…
This paper presents an exclusive classification of the largest crashes in Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), SP500 and NASDAQ in the past century. Crashes are objectively defined as the top-rank filtered drawdowns (loss from the last…
Statistics of drawdowns (loss from the last local maximum to the next local minimum) plays an important role in risk assessment of investment strategies. As they incorporate higher ($>$ two) order correlations, they offer a better measure…
This paper explores the mechanisms behind extreme financial events, specifically market crashes, by employing the theoretical framework of phase transitions. We focus on endogenous crashes, driven by internal market dynamics, and model…
This review is a partial synthesis of the book ``Why stock market crash'' (Princeton University Press, January 2003), which presents a general theory of financial crashes and of stock market instabilities that his co-workers and the author…
We call attention against what seems to a widely held misconception according to which large crashes are the largest events of distributions of price variations with fat tails. We demonstrate on the Dow Jones Industrial index that with high…
We introduce two ratio-based robust test statistics, max-robust-sum (MRS) and sum-robust-sum (SRS), designed to enhance the robustness of outlier detection in samples with exponential or Pareto tails. We also reintroduce the inward…
We investigate the distributions of epsilon-drawdowns and epsilon-drawups of the most liquid futures financial contracts of the world at time scales of 30 seconds. The epsilon-drawdowns (resp. epsilon- drawups) generalise the notion of runs…
Prediction of events in financial markets is every investor's dream and, usually, wishful thinking. From a more general, economic and societal viewpoint, the identification of indicators for large events is highly desirable to assess…
Finance is about how the continuous stream of news gets incorporated into prices. But not all news have the same impact. Can one distinguish the effects of the Sept. 11, 2001 attack or of the coup against Gorbachev on Aug., 19, 1991 from…
Synchronising a database of stock specific news with 5 years worth of order book data on 300 stocks, we show that abnormal price movements following news releases (exogenous) exhibit markedly different dynamical features from those arising…
A taxonomy of large financial crashes proposed in the literature locates the burst of speculative bubbles due to endogenous causes in the framework of extreme stock market crashes, defined as falls of market prices that are outlier with…
A theory of exceptional extreme events, characterized by their abnormal sizes compared with the rest of the distribution, is presented. Such outliers, called "dragon-kings", have been reported in the distribution of financial drawdowns,…
There are many research papers yielding the financial data models, where returns are tied either to the fundamental analysis or to the individual, often irrational, behaviour of investors. In the second case the bubble followed by the…
The study of the critical dynamics in complex systems is always interesting yet challenging. Here, we choose financial market as an example of a complex system, and do a comparative analyses of two stock markets - the S&P 500 (USA) and…
Cascades of events and extreme occurrences have garnered significant attention across diverse domains such as financial markets, seismology, and social physics. Such events can stem either from the internal dynamics inherent to the system…
Anomaly detection is a challenging task, particularly in systems with many variables. Anomalies are outliers that statistically differ from the analyzed data and can arise from rare events, malfunctions, or system misuse. This study…
Are large biological extinctions such as the Cretaceous/Tertiary KT boundary due to a meteorite, extreme volcanic activity or self-organized critical extinction cascades? Are commercial successes due to a progressive reputation cascade or…
We identify a robust structural signature of stock markets during exogenous shock events by analyzing collective return dynamics across G5 countries. Using Random Matrix Theory, we introduce the complexity gap, defined as the difference…