Related papers: Crash Avoidance in a Complex System
Adaptive dynamical systems arise in a multitude of contexts, e.g., optimization, control, communications, signal processing, and machine learning. A precise characterization of their fundamental limitations is therefore of paramount…
Complexity is an interdisciplinary concept which, first of all, addresses the question of how order emerges out of randomness. For many reasons matrices provide a very practical and powerful tool in approaching and quantifying the related…
Mean field games and controls involve guiding the behavior of large populations of interacting agents, where each individual's influence on the group is negligible but collectively impacts overall dynamics. Hybrid systems integrate…
Accurately assessing failure risk due to asset deterioration and/or extreme events is essential for efficient transportation asset management. Traditional risk assessment is conducted for individual assets by either focusing on the economic…
With remarkable significance in migration prediction, global disease mitigation, urban planning and many others, an arresting challenge is to predict human mobility fluxes between any two locations. A number of methods have been proposed…
Complex adaptive systems have been the subject of much recent attention. It is by now well-established that members (`agents') tend to self-segregate into opposing groups characterized by extreme behavior. However, while different social…
The chaos game representation (CGR) is an interesting method to visualize one-dimensional sequences. In this paper, we show how to construct a chaos game representation. The applications mentioned here are biological, in which CGR was able…
In the original Evolutionary Minority Game, a segregation into two populations with opposing preferences is observed under many circumstances. We show that this segregation becomes more pronounced and more robust if the dynamics are changed…
We consider a population with non-overlapping generations, whose size goes to infinity. It is described by a discrete genealogy which may be time non-homogeneous and we pay special attention to branching trees in varying environments. A…
In this paper I give a brief introduction to a family of simple but non-trivial models designed to increase our understanding of collective processes in markets, the so-called Minority Games, and their non-equilibrium statistical…
We study contagion and systemic risk in sparse financial networks with balance-sheet interactions on a directed random graph. Each institution has homogeneous liabilities and equity, and exposures along outgoing edges are split equally…
Flash crashes in financial markets have become increasingly important attracting attention from financial regulators, market makers as well as from the media and the broader audience. Systemic risk and propagation of shocks in financial…
We propose a model and an estimation technique to distinguish systemic risk and contagion in credit risk. The main idea is to assume, for a set of $d$ obligors, a set of $d$ idiosyncratic shocks and a shock that triggers the default of all…
The paper is focused on the discussion of the phenomenon of transitional chaos in dynamic autonomous and non-autonomous systems. This phenomenon involves the disappearance of chaotic oscillations in specific time periods and the system…
This paper proposes a systems theory approach to the modeling of onset and evolution of criminality in a territory, which aims at capturing the complexity features of social systems. Complexity is related to the fact that individuals have…
We document a mechanism operating in complex adaptive systems leading to dynamical pockets of predictability (``prediction days''), in which agents collectively take predetermined courses of action, transiently decoupled from past history.…
We provide a theoretical description of the Minority Game in terms of crowd effects. The size of the fluctuations arising in the game is controlled by the interplay between crowds of like-minded agents and their anti-correlated partners…
Traffic safety science has long been hindered by a fundamental data paradox: the crashes we most wish to prevent are precisely those events we rarely observe. Existing crash-frequency models and surrogate safety metrics rely heavily on…
Corporate insolvency can have a devastating effect on the economy. With an increasing number of companies making expansion overseas to capitalize on foreign resources, a multinational corporate bankruptcy can disrupt the world's financial…
While plenty of results have been obtained for single-particle quantum systems with chaotic dynamics through a semiclassical theory, much less is known about quantum chaos in the many-body setting. We contribute to recent efforts to make a…