Related papers: Hedging Extreme Co-Movements
Options are contingent claims regarding the value of underlying assets. The Black-Scholes formula provides a road map for pricing these options in a risk-neutral setting, justified by a delta hedging argument in which countervailing…
The extreme values theory presents specific tools for modeling and predicting extreme phenomena. In particular, risk assessment is often analyzed through measures for tail dependence and high values clustering. Despite technological…
Extreme events and the heavy tail distributions driven by them are ubiquitous in various scientific, engineering and financial research. They are typically associated with stochastic instability caused by hidden unresolved processes.…
In the world of modern financial theory, portfolio construction has traditionally operated under at least one of two central assumptions: the constraints are derived from a utility function and/or the multivariate probability distribution…
Probabilistic forecasts comprehensively describe the uncertainty in the unknown future outcome, making them essential for decision making and risk management. While several methods have been introduced to evaluate probabilistic forecasts,…
We study hedging and pricing of unattainable contingent claims in a non-Markovian regime-switching financial model. Our financial market consists of a bank account and a risky asset whose dynamics are driven by a Brownian motion and a…
Economic and financial crises are characterised by unusually large events. These tail events co-move because of linear and/or nonlinear dependencies. We introduce TailCoR, a metric that combines (and disentangles) these linear and…
With model uncertainty characterized by a convex, possibly non-dominated set of probability measures, the agent minimizes the cost of hedging a path dependent contingent claim with given expected success ratio, in a discrete-time,…
We model systemic risk using a common factor that accounts for market-wide shocks and a tail dependence factor that accounts for linkages among extreme stock returns. Specifically, our theoretical model allows for firm-specific impacts of…
There are many ways of measuring and modeling tail-dependence in random vectors: from the general framework of multivariate regular variation and the flexible class of max-stable vectors down to simple and concise summary measures like the…
We present a detailed study of the performance of a trading rule that uses moving average of past returns to predict future returns on stock indexes. Our main goal is to link performance and the stochastic process of the traded asset. Our…
What is the best market-neutral implementation of classical Equity Factors? Should one use the specific predictability of the short-leg to build a zero beta Long-Short portfolio, in spite of the specific costs associated to shorting, or is…
We propose a transformation capable of altering the tail properties of a distribution, motivated by extreme value theory, which can be used as a layer in a normalizing flow to approximate multivariate heavy tailed distributions. We apply…
Factor models have large potencial in the modeling of several natural and human phenomena. In this paper we consider a multivariate time series $\mb{Y}_n$, ${n\geq 1}$, rescaled through random factors $\mb{T}_n$, ${n\geq 1}$, extending some…
We present a white-box, risk-sensitive framework for jointly hedging SPX and VIX exposures under transaction costs and regime shifts. The approach couples an arbitrage-free market teacher with a control layer that enforces safety as…
It is well-known that the expected scaled maximum of non-negative random variables with unit mean defines a stable tail dependence function associated with some extreme-value copula. In the special case when these random variables are…
The stability of the financial system is associated with systemic risk factors such as the concurrent default of numerous small obligors. Hence it is of utmost importance to study the mutual dependence of losses for different creditors in…
We consider heavy-tailed distributions and compare the well-known estimators of the tail index, based on extreme value theory with a comparatively recent estimator based on a different idea.
In this paper, a novel approach to the problem of estimating the heavy-tail exponent alpha>0 of a distribution is proposed. It is based on the fact that block-maxima of size m of the independent and identically distributed data scale at a…
Fat tails in financial time series and increase of stocks cross-correlations in high volatility periods are puzzling facts that ask for new paradigms. Both points are of key importance in fundamental research as well as in Risk Management…