Related papers: Are Forest Fires Predictable?
In the thermodynamic limit, a probabilistic cellular automaton can be approximated by a deterministic nonlinear map. Here we construct such a map for the forest fire problem. The construction is based on the results of the Monte Carlo…
Forest fire spreading is a complex phenomenon characterized by a stochastic behavior. Nowadays, the enormous quantity of georeferenced data and the availability of powerful techniques for their analysis can provide a very careful picture of…
We study the long-time dynamics of a forest-fire model with deterministic tree growth and instantaneous burning of entire forests by stochastic lightning strikes. Asymptotically the system organizes into a coarsening self-similar mosaic of…
We present a general stochastic forest-fire model which shows a variety of different structures depending on the parameter values. The model contains three possible states per site (tree, burning tree, empty site) and three parameters (tree…
We propose a Bayesian stochastic cellular automata modeling approach to model the spread of wildfires with uncertainty quantification. The model considers a dynamic neighborhood structure that allows neighbor states to inform transition…
We consider random dynamics on a uniform random recursive tree with $n$ vertices. Successively, in a uniform random order, each edge is either set on fire with some probability $p_n$ or fireproof with probability $1-p_n$. Fires propagate in…
We develop a finite-sample, design-based theory for random forests in which each tree is a randomized conditional predictor acting on fixed covariates and the forest is their Monte Carlo average. An exact variance identity separates Monte…
Random forests are a learning algorithm proposed by Breiman [Mach. Learn. 45 (2001) 5--32] that combines several randomized decision trees and aggregates their predictions by averaging. Despite its wide usage and outstanding practical…
We propose a discrete two-dimensional mathematical model for forest fires and we derive certain results describing its limiting behavior. We also pose a relevant open question.
Dynamic trees are mixtures of tree structured belief networks. They solve some of the problems of fixed tree networks at the cost of making exact inference intractable. For this reason approximate methods such as sampling or mean field…
Tree-grass coexistence in savanna ecosystems depends strongly on environmental disturbances out of which crucial is fire. Most modeling attempts in the literature lack stochastic approach to fire occurrences which is essential to reflect…
Forest fires pose a natural threat with devastating social, environmental, and economic implications. The rapid and highly uncertain rate of spread of wildfires necessitates a trustworthy digital tool capable of providing real-time…
The role of forest heterogeneity in the long-term, large-scale dynamics of forest fires is investigated by means of a cellular automata model and mean field approximation. Heterogeneity was conceived as trees (or acres of forest) with…
Wildfire is an important system process of the earth that occurs across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. A variety of methods have been used to predict wildfire phenomena during the past century to better our understanding of…
Random forests are a scheme proposed by Leo Breiman in the 2000's for building a predictor ensemble with a set of decision trees that grow in randomly selected subspaces of data. Despite growing interest and practical use, there has been…
We study the distribution of ages in the mean field forest fire model introduced by R\'ath and T\'oth. This model is an evolving random graph whose dynamics combine Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi edge-addition with a Poisson rain of lightning strikes.…
We consider the so-called one-dimensional forest fire process. At each site of $\mathbb{Z}$, a tree appears at rate $1$. At each site of $\mathbb{Z}$, a fire starts at rate ${\lambda}>0$, immediately destroying the whole corresponding…
We consider a forest-fire model which, somewhat informally, is described as follows: Each site (vertex) of the square lattice is either vacant or occupied by a tree.Vacant sites become occupied at rate 1. Further, each site is hit by…
We consider a version of the forest fire model on graph $G$, where each vertex of a graph becomes occupied with rate one. A fixed vertex $v_0$ is hit by lightning with the same rate, and when this occurs, the whole cluster of occupied…
Forest fires are the outcome of a complex interaction between environmental factors, topography and socioeconomic factors (Bedia et al, 2014). Therefore, understand causality and early prediction are crucial elements for controlling such…