Related papers: Optimal Investment Horizons
We show how to reduce the problem of computing VaR and CVaR with Student T return distributions to evaluation of analytical functions of the moments. This allows an analysis of the risk properties of systems to be carefully attributed…
Reliable calculations of financial risk require that the fat-tailed nature of prices changes is included in risk measures. To this end, a non-Gaussian approach to financial risk management is presented, modeling the power-law tails of the…
In the present paper, using a replica analysis, we examine the portfolio optimization problem handled in previous work and discuss the minimization of investment risk under constraints of budget and expected return for the case that the…
This paper studies a continuous-time optimal portfolio selection problem in the complete market for a behavioral investor whose preference is of the prospect type with probability distortion. The investor concerns about the terminal…
We consider a single-period portfolio selection problem for an investor, maximizing the expected ratio of the portfolio utility and the utility of a best asset taken in hindsight. The decision rules are based on the history of stock returns…
This paper explores the implications of producing forecast distributions that are optimized according to scoring rules that are relevant to financial risk management. We assess the predictive performance of optimal forecasts from…
We study the Heston model, where the stock price dynamics is governed by a geometrical (multiplicative) Brownian motion with stochastic variance. We solve the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation exactly and, after integrating out the…
Financial markets are highly non-linear and non-equilibrium systems. Earlier works have suggested that the behavior of market returns can be well described within the framework of non-extensive Tsallis statistics or superstatistics. For…
The mean completion time of a stochastic process may be rendered finite and minimised by a judiciously chosen restart protocol, which may either be stochastic or deterministic. Here we study analytically an arbitrary stochastic search…
This paper investigates risk measures derived from the expected maximum deficit in a continuous-time framework and develops optimal reserve allocation strategies across multiple lines of business. We formalize the expected maximum deficit…
In structural credit risk models, default events and the ensuing losses are both derived from the asset values at maturity. Hence it is of utmost importance to choose a distribution for these asset values which is in accordance with…
Diversification is usually viewed as a reliable way to reduce risk, yet it can dramatically fail for heavy-tailed losses with infinite mean: pooling independent losses of this type may increase tail risk at every threshold. We study this…
Venture capital outcomes are dominated by a small number of extreme successes, making it difficult to distinguish investor skill from favorable realizations in a highly skewed return distribution. We study this question by comparing…
We consider a stochastic game-theoretic model of an investment market in continuous time with short-lived assets and study strategies, called survival, which guarantee that the relative wealth of an investor who uses such a strategy remains…
We propose a set of dependence measures that are non-linear, local, invariant to a wide range of transformations on the marginals, can show tail and risk asymmetries, are always well-defined, are easy to estimate and can be used on any…
We consider the problem of dynamic buying and selling of shares from a collection of $N$ stocks with random price fluctuations. To limit investment risk, we place an upper bound on the total number of shares kept at any time. Assuming that…
This paper is concerned with the axiomatic foundation and explicit construction of a general class of optimality criteria that can be used for investment problems with multiple time horizons, or when the time horizon is not known in…
We first estimate the average growth of a company's annual income and its variance by using both real company data and a numerical model which we already introduced a couple of years ago. Investment strategies expecting for income growth is…
In finance, sequential decision problems are often faced, for which reinforcement learning (RL) emerges as a promising tool for optimisation without the need of analytical tractability. However, the objective of classical RL is the expected…
Large deviations for fat tailed distributions, i.e. those that decay slower than exponential, are not only relatively likely, but they also occur in a rather peculiar way where a finite fraction of the whole sample deviation is concentrated…