Related papers: A Complexity View of Rainfall
Motivated by the analysis of extreme rainfall data, we introduce a general Bayesian hierarchical model for estimating the probability distribution of extreme values of intermittent random sequences, a common problem in geophysical and…
Predicting future probable values of model parameters, is an essential pre-requisite for assessing model decision reliability in an uncertain environment. Scenario Analysis is a methodology for modelling uncertainty in water resources…
It is difficult to explain rainfall from ice-free clouds, because the timescale for the onset of rain showers is shorter than the mean time for collisions between microscopic water droplets. It has been suggested that raindrops are produced…
We review recent results on the appearance of long-term persistence in climatic records and their relevance for the evaluation of global climate models and rare events.The persistence can be characterized, for example, by the correlation…
The field of study of complex systems considers that the dynamics of complex systems are founded on universal principles that may be used to describe a great variety of scientific and technological approaches of different types of natural,…
Climate change has a dramatic impact, particularly by concentrating rainfall into a few short periods, interspersed by long dry spells. In this context, the role of dams is crucial. We consider the optimal control of a dam, where the water…
Complex systems consist of many interacting elements which participate in some dynamical process. The activity of various elements is often different and the fluctuation in the activity of an element grows monotonically with the average…
We report avalanche criticality of thermal relaxation in glassy systems after a rapid quench by molecular simulation. Our analysis of the energy landscape and the scaling reveals that particle rearrangement is critical. The critical…
These lecture notes give a short review of methods such as the matrix ansatz, the additivity principle or the macroscopic fluctuation theory, developed recently in the theory of non-equilibrium phenomena. They show how these methods allow…
Turbulence is ubiquitous in nonequilibrium systems, and it has been noted that even dense granular flows exhibit characteristics that are typical of turbulent flow, such as the power-law energy spectrum. However, studies on the…
The yielding transition in amorphous materials, whether driven passively (simple shear) or actively, remains a fundamental open question in soft matter physics. While avalanche statistics at the critical point have been extensively studied,…
We address several questions on the behavior of a numerical model recently introduced to study seismic phenomena, that includes relaxation in the plates as a key ingredient. We make an analysis of the scaling of the largest events with…
Catastrophes of all kinds can be roughly defined as short duration-large amplitude events following and followed by long periods of "ripening". Major earthquakes surely belong to the class of 'catastrophic' events. Because of the space-time…
While the warming trends of the Earth's mean temperature are evident at climatological scales, the local temperature at shorter timescales are highly fluctuating. In this letter we show that the probabilities of such fluctuations are…
Systems with a complex dynamics like glasses or models of biological evolution are often pictured in terms of complex landscapes, with a large number of possible collective states. We show on the example of a stochastic spin model with…
Specific aspects of time series analysis are discussed. They are related to the analysis of atmospheric data that are pertinent to clouds. A brief introduction on some of the most interesting topics of current research on climate/weather…
Avalanche statistics of various threshold activated dynamical systems are known to depend on the magnitude of the drive, or stress, on the system. Such dependencies exist for earthquake size distributions, in sheared granular avalanches,…
Fluctuation theorems, which have been developed over the past 15 years, have resulted in fundamental breakthroughs in our understanding of how irreversibility emerges from reversible dynamics, and have provided new statistical mechanical…
Extreme events are unusual and rare large-amplitude fluctuations that occur can unexpectedly in nonlinear dynamical systems. Events above the extreme event threshold of the probability distribution of a nonlinear process characterize…
Complex systems, when poised near a critical point of a phase transition between order and disorder, exhibit a dynamics comprising a scale-free mixture of order and disorder which is universal, i.e. system-independent (1-5). It allows…