Related papers: Quantifying Stock Price Response to Demand Fluctua…
The waiting time needed for a stock market index to undergo a given percentage change in its value is found to have an up-down asymmetry, which, surprisingly, is not observed for the individual stocks composing that index. To explain this,…
We analyze the statistics of daily price change of stock market in the framework of a statistical physics model for the collective fluctuation of stock portfolio. In this model the time series of price changes are coded into the sequences…
We present a set of models of the main stylized facts of market price fluctuations. These models comprise dynamical evolution with threshold dynamics and Langevin price equation with multiplicative noise, percolation models to describe the…
The trade size $\omega$ has direct impact on the price formation of the stock traded. Econophysical analyses of transaction data for the US and Australian stock markets have uncovered market-specific scaling laws, where a master curve of…
We investigate the random walk of prices by developing a simple model relating the properties of the signs and absolute values of individual price changes to the diffusion rate (volatility) of prices at longer time scales. We show that this…
Classic studies of the probability density of price fluctuations $g$ for stocks and foreign exchanges of several highly developed economies have been interpreted using a {\it power-law} probability density function $P(g) \sim…
We review the evidence that the erratic dynamics of markets is to a large extent of endogenous origin, i.e. determined by the trading activity itself and not due to the rational processing of exogenous news. In order to understand why and…
We develop a theoretical trading conditioning model subject to price volatility and return information in terms of market psychological behavior, based on analytical transaction volume-price probability wave distributions in which we use…
A new approach to obtaining market--directional information, based on a non-stationary solution to the dynamic equation "future price tends to the value that maximizes the number of shares traded per unit time" [1] is presented. In our…
It is known that the impact of transactions on stock price (market impact) is a concave function of the size of the order, but there exists little quantitative theory that suggests why this is so. I develop a quantitative theory for the…
We model the price of a stock via a Lang\'{e}vin equation with multi-dimensional fluctuations coupled in the price and in time. We generalize previous models in that we assume that the fluctuations conditioned on the time step are compound…
Understanding the structure of financial markets deals with suitably determining the functional relation between financial variables. In this respect, important variables are the trading activity, defined here as the number of trades $N$,…
This paper assumes that the randomness of market trade values and volumes determines the properties of stochastic market prices. We derive the direct dependence of the first two price statistical moments and price volatility on statistical…
In Part II of this paper, we concentrate our analysis on the price dynamical model with the moving average rules developed in Part I of this paper. By decomposing the excessive demand function, we reveal that it is the interplay between…
We propose a new approach for analyzing price fluctuations in their strongly correlated regime ranging from minutes to months. This is done by employing a self-similarity assumption for the magnitude of coarse-grained price fluctuation or…
This paper investigates the scaling dependencies between measures of "activity" and of "size" for companies included in the FTSE 100. The "size" of companies is measured by the total market capitalization. The "activity" is measured with…
We propose that predictability is a prerequisite for profitability on financial markets. We look at ways to measure predictability of price changes using information theoretic approach and employ them on all historical data available for…
The Price equation partitions the change in the expected value of a population measure. The first component describes the partial change caused by altered frequencies. The second component describes the partial change caused by altered…
We give three derivations of Polya's approximation for the expected range of a simple random walk in one dimension. This result allows for an estimation of the volatility of a financial instrument from the difference between the high and…
The scaling properties of oil price fluctuations are described as a non-stationary stochastic process realized by a time series of finite length. An original model is used to extract the scaling exponent of the fluctuation functions within…