Related papers: Firewalls, Disorder, and Percolation in Epidemics
We study a stochastic epidemic model with multiple patches (locations), where individuals in each patch are categorized into three compartments, Susceptible, Infected and Recovered/Removed, and may migrate from one patch to another in any…
We present an analysis of six deterministic models for epidemic spreading. The evolution of the number of individuals of each class is given by ordinary differential equations of the first order in time, which are set up by using the laws…
During the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, mathematical models of epidemic spreading have emerged as powerful tools to produce valuable predictions of the evolution of the pandemic, helping public health authorities decide which intervention…
The shape of an epidemic wave in simple epidemic models applies to a homogeneous distribution of infected people in the population. In large inhomogeneous systems, at country-scale for instance, the wave shape is similar except for the…
The social networks that infectious diseases spread along are typically clustered. Because of the close relation between percolation and epidemic spread, the behavior of percolation in such networks gives insight into infectious disease…
The primary tool for predicting infectious disease spread and intervention effectiveness is the mass action Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model of Kermack and McKendrick. Its usefulness derives largely from its conceptual and mathematical…
We explore how heterogeneity in the intensity of interactions between people affects epidemic spreading. For that, we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible model on a complex network, where a link connecting individuals $i$ and $j$ is…
There is a rich history of models for the interaction of a biological contagion like influenza with the spread of related information such as an influenza vaccination campaign. Recent work on the spread of interacting contagions on networks…
Random walk is one of the basic mechanisms found in many network applications. We study the epidemic spreading dynamics driven by biased random walks on complex networks. In our epidemic model, each time infected nodes constantly spread…
In this paper, I study epidemic diffusion in a generalized spatial SEIRD model, where individuals are initially connected in a social or geographical network. As the virus spreads in the network, the structure of interactions between people…
Epidemic outbreaks of new pathogens, or known pathogens in new populations, cause a great deal of fear because they are hard to predict. For theoretical models of disease spreading, on the other hand, quantities characterizing the outbreak…
Our work stems from the consideration that the spreading of a disease is modulated by the individual's perception of the infected neighborhood and his/her strategy to avoid being infected as well. We introduced a general ``cellular agent''…
We consider the spread of epidemics in technological and social networks. How do people react? Does awareness and cautious behavior help? We analyze these questions and present a dynamic model to describe the movement of individuals and/or…
We present a simple model for the spread of an infection that incorporates spatial variability in population density. Starting from first principle considerations, we explore how a novel PDE with state-dependent diffusion can be obtained.…
A phase diagram for a one dimensional fiber bundle model is constructed with a continuous variation in two parameters guiding dynamics of the model: strength of disorder and system size. We monitor the successive events of fiber rupture in…
A key scientific challenge during the outbreak of novel infectious diseases is to predict how the course of the epidemic changes under different countermeasures that limit interaction in the population. Most epidemiological models do not…
We obtain tight thresholds for bond percolation on one-dimensional small-world graphs, and apply such results to obtain tight thresholds for the \emph{Independent Cascade} process and the \emph{Reed-Frost} process in such graphs. These are…
Contacts between individuals serve as pathways where infections may propagate. These contact patterns can be represented by network structures. Static structures have been the common modeling paradigm but recent results suggest that…
Summary 1. Infectious disease outbreaks in plants threaten ecosystems, agricultural crops and food trade. Currently, several fungal diseases are affecting forests worldwide, posing a major risk to tree species, habitats and consequently…
Epidemiological models describe the spread of an infectious disease within a population. They capture microscopic details on how the disease is passed on among individuals in various different ways, while making predictions about the state…