Related papers: Expected Shortfall: a natural coherent alternative…
It is shown that the axioms for coherent risk measures imply that whenever there is an asset in a portfolio that dominates the others in a given sample (which happens with finite probability even for large samples), then this portfolio…
Systemic risk measures have been shown to be predictive of financial crises and declines in real activity. Thus, forecasting them is of major importance in finance and economics. In this paper, we propose a new forecasting method for…
We study submodularity for law-invariant functionals, with particular attention to convex risk measures. Expected losses are modular, and certainty equivalents are submodular exactly when the loss function is convex. Law-invariant coherent…
We address the problem that classical risk measures may not detect the tail risk adequately. This can occur for instance due to averaging when calculating the Expected Shortfall. The current literature proposes the so-called adjusted…
In financial risk management, Value at Risk (VaR) is widely used to estimate potential portfolio losses. VaR's limitation is its inability to account for the magnitude of losses beyond a certain threshold. Expected Shortfall (ES) addresses…
This paper presents analytical solutions to the problem of how to calculate sensible VaR (Value-at-Risk) and ES (Expected Shortfall) contributions in the CreditRisk+ methodology. Via the ES contributions, ES itself can be exactly computed…
The risk of a financial position is usually summarized by a risk measure. As this risk measure has to be estimated from historical data, it is important to be able to verify and compare competing estimation procedures. In statistical…
Measuring the contribution of a bank or an insurance company to overall systemic risk is a key concern, particularly in the aftermath of the 2007--2009 financial crisis and the 2020 downturn. In this paper, we derive worst-case and…
Systemic risk is the risk that a company- or industry-level risk could trigger a huge collapse of another or even the whole institution. Various systemic risk measures have been proposed in the literature to quantify the domino and…
Expectile bears some interesting properties in comparison to the industry wide expected shortfall in terms of assessment of tail risk. We study the relationship between expectile and expected shortfall using duality results and the link to…
Although quantile regression to calculate risk measures has been widely established in the financial literature, when considering data observed at mixed--frequency, an extension is needed. In this paper, a model is suggested built on a…
We address the problem of portfolio optimization under the simplest coherent risk measure, i.e. the expected shortfall. As it is well known, one can map this problem into a linear programming setting. For some values of the external…
This paper discusses an alternative explanation for the empirical findings contradicting the positive relationship between risk (variance) and reward (expected return). We show that these contradicting results might be due to the false…
The expectile can be considered as a generalization of quantile. While expected shortfall is a quantile based risk measure, we study its counterpart -- the expectile based expected shortfall -- where expectile takes the place of quantile.…
Value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) are two commonly utilized metrics for quantifying financial risk. In this study, we review the widely employed Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models. These…
Value at risk and expected shortfall are increasingly popular tail risk measures in the financial risk management field. Both academia and financial institutions are working to improve tail risk forecasts in order to meet the requirements…
Marginal expected shortfall (MES) is an important measure when assessing and quantifying the contribution of the financial institution to a systemic crisis. In this paper, we propose time-lagged marginal expected shortfall (TMES) as a…
A new semi-parametric Expected Shortfall (ES) estimation and forecasting framework is proposed. The proposed approach is based on a two-step estimation procedure. The first step involves the estimation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) at different…
We derive new approximations for the Value at Risk and the Expected Shortfall at high levels of loss distributions with positive skewness and excess kurtosis, and we describe their precisions for notable ones such as for exponential, Pareto…
The celebrated Expected Shortfall (ES) optimization formula implies that ES at a fixed probability level is the minimum of a linear real function plus a scaled mean excess function. We establish a reverse ES optimization formula, which says…