Related papers: Precursory dynamics in threshold systems
In this paper I present a first attempt for a possible description of fluids dynamics by mean of a cellular automata technique. With the use of simple and elementary rules, based on random behaviour either, the model permits to obtain the…
A cellular automaton model is presented for random walkers with biologically motivated interactions favoring local alignment and leading to collective motion or swarming behavior. The degree of alignment is controlled by a sensitivity…
We introduce a modification of the OFC earthquake model [Phys. Rev. Lett. 68, 1244 (1992)] in order to improve resemblance with the Burridge and Knopoff mechanical model and with possible laboratory experiments. A constant force continually…
We propose a novel method for analyzing precursory seismic data before an earthquake that treats them as a Markov process and distinguishes the background noise from real fluctuations due to an earthquake. A short time (on the order of…
Rare events are ubiquitous in many different fields, yet they are notoriously difficult to simulate because few, if any, events are observed in a conventiona l simulation run. Over the past several decades, specialised simulation methods…
Earthquake cycles are studied by taking into account the interactions among slip, fluid pressure, temperature, and porosity on the fault planes, which are known to play a crucial role in earthquake dynamics. The spring-block model with a…
When complex systems are driven to extinction by some external factor, their non-stationary dynamics can present an intermittent behaviour between relative tranquility and burst of activity whose consequences are often catastrophic. To…
A multicomponent random process used as a model for the problem of space-time earthquake prediction; this allows us to develop consistent estimation for conditional probabilities of large earthquakes if the values of the predictor…
The standard paradigm to describe seismicity induced by fluid injection is to apply nonlinear diffusion dynamics in a poroelastic medium. I show that the spatiotemporal behaviour and rate evolution of induced seismicity can, instead, be…
Record-breaking avalanches generated by the dynamics of several driven nonlinear threshold models are studied. Such systems are characterized by intermittent behavior, where slow buildup of energy is punctuated by an abrupt release of…
Numerical simulations and a mean-field analysis of a sandpile model of earthquake aftershocks in 1d, 2d and 3d euclidean lattices determine that the average stress decays in a punctuated fashion after a main shock, with events occurring at…
Simple models of earthquake faults are important for understanding the mechanisms for their observed behavior, such as Gutenberg-Richter scaling and the relation between large and small events, which is the basis for various forecasting…
We propose a picture of stock market crashes as critical points in a hierachical system with discrete scaling. The critical exponent is then complex, leading to log-periodic fluctuations in stock market indexes. We present ``experimental''…
Earthquakes occur because of abrupt slips on faults due to accumulated stress in the Earth's crust. Because most of these faults and their mechanisms are not readily apparent, deterministic earthquake prediction is difficult. For effective…
This paper presents a rigorous analytical model of traffic dynamics on a circular track, demonstrating the emergence of standing oscillations resulting from microscopic driver behaviour, delay responses, and proximity pressure. Without…
Fault-zone fluids control effective normal stress and fault strength. While most earthquake models assume a fixed pore fluid pressure distribution, geologists have documented fault valving behavior, that is, cyclic changes in pressure and…
This chapter first presents a rather personal view of some different aspects of predictability, going in crescendo from simple linear systems to high-dimensional nonlinear systems with stochastic forcing, which exhibit emergent properties…
We propose a new type of earthquake precursor based on the analysis of correlation dynamics between geophysical signals of different nature. The precursor is found using a two-parameter cross-correlation function introduced within the…
We investigate numerically the transition between static equilibrium and dynamic surface flow of a 2D cohesionless granular system driven by a continuous gravity loading. This transition is characterized by intermittent local dynamic…
Fault systems have geometrically complex structures in nature, such as stepovers, bends, branches, and roughness. Many geological and geophysical studies have shown that the geometrical complexity of fault systems in nature decisively…