Related papers: How does the Eurodollar Interest Rate behave?
A theory which describes the share price evolution at financial markets as a continuous-time random walk has been generalized in order to take into account the dependence of waiting times t on price returns x. A joint probability density…
This paper studies the 28 time series of Libor rates, classified in seven maturities and four currencies), during the last 14 years. The analysis was performed using a novel technique in financial economics: the Complexity-Entropy Causality…
This paper aims to analyze the relationship between yield curve -being a line of the interests in various maturities at a given time- and GDP growth in Turkey. The paper focuses on analyzing the yield curve in relation to its predictive…
Multivariate probability density functions of returns are constructed in order to model the empirical behavior of returns in a financial time series. They describe the well-established deviations from the Gaussian random walk, such as an…
This paper proposes an empirical test of financial contagion in European equity markets during the tumultuous period of 2008-2011. Our analysis shows that traditional GARCH and Gaussian stochastic-volatility models are unable to explain two…
In this work we show that prediction uncertainty estimates gleaned from deep learning models can be useful inputs for influencing the relative allocation of risk capital across trades. In this way, consideration of uncertainty is important…
This paper addresses the statistical properties of time series driven by rational bubbles a la Blanchard and Watson (1982), corresponding to multiplicative maps, whose study has recently be revived recently in physics as a mechanism of…
We perform a systematic investigation on the components of the empirical multifractality of financial returns using the daily data of Dow Jones Industrial Average from 26 May 1896 to 27 April 2007 as an example. The temporal structure and…
We report activity data analysis on several open source software projects, focusing on time between modifications and on the number of files modified at once. Both have fat-tailed distributions, long-term memory, and display systematic…
The cross-correlations between the exchange rate fluctuations of 74 currencies over the period 1995-2012 are analyzed in this paper. The eigenvalue distribution of the cross-correlation matrix exhibits a bulk which approximately matches the…
We have presented a novel technique of detecting intermittencies in a financial time series of the foreign exchange rate data of U.S.- Euro dollar(US/EUR) using a combination of both statistical and spectral techniques. This has been…
This thesis applies entropy as a model independent measure to address three research questions concerning financial time series. In the first study we apply transfer entropy to drawdowns and drawups in foreign exchange rates, to study their…
Financial time series have been investigated to follow fat-tailed distributions. Further, an empirical probability distribution sometimes shows cut-off shapes on its tails. To describe this stylized fact, we incorporate the cut-off effect…
We investigate topology and temporal evolution of the foreign currency exchange market viewed from a weighted network perspective. Based on exchange rates for a set of 46 currencies (including precious metals), we construct different…
We empirically analyze the scaling properties of daily Foreign Exchange rates, Stock Market indices and Bond futures across different financial markets. We study the scaling behaviour of the time series by using a generalized Hurst exponent…
The Euro (EUR) has been a currency introduced by the European Community on Jan. 01, 1999. This implies eleven countries of the European Union which have been found to meet the five requirements of the Maastricht convergence criteria. In…
A large consensus now seems to take for granted that the distributions of empirical returns of financial time series are regularly varying, with a tail exponent close to 3. We revisit this results and use standard tests as well as develop a…
We present an empirical study of the subordination hypothesis for a stochastic time series of a stock price. The fluctuating rate of trading is identified with the stochastic variance of the stock price, as in the continuous-time random…
We analyze structure of the world foreign currency exchange (FX) market viewed as a network of interacting currencies. We analyze daily time series of FX data for a set of 63 currencies, including gold, silver and platinum. We group…
We examine the problem of modeling and forecasting European Day-Ahead and Month-Ahead natural gas prices. For this, we propose two distinct probabilistic models that can be utilized in risk- and portfolio management. We use daily pricing…