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Related papers: A model for complex aftershock sequences

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In this paper, we propose a new dynamical model to study the two-stage volatility evolution of stock market index after extreme events, and find that the volatility after extreme events follows a stretched exponential decay in the initial…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-01-11 Mei-Ling Cai , Zhang-HangJian Chen , Sai-Ping Li , Xiong Xiong , Wei Zhang , Ming-Yuan Yang , Fei Ren

The Himalayan region, including Nepal, is prone to frequent and large earthquakes. Accurate forecasting of these earthquakes is crucial for minimizing loss of life and damage to infrastructure. In this study, we propose various time-scaled…

Applications · Statistics 2025-08-07 Agniva Das , Muralidharan K

Crackling dynamics is characterized by a release of incoming energy through intermittent avalanches. The shape, i.e. the internal temporal structure of these avalanches, gives insightful information about the physical processes involved. It…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2020-09-09 Chi-Cong Vu , Jerome Weiss

Forecasting volcanic eruptions remains a formidable challenge due to the inherent complexity and variability of volcanic processes. A key source of uncertainty arises from the sporadic nature of volcanic unrest, which is often characterised…

Geophysics · Physics 2025-03-03 Qinghua Lei , Didier Sornette

Forecasting violent rockbursts remains a formidable challenge due to significant uncertainties involved. One major uncertainty arises from the intermittency of rock failure processes, typically characterised by a series of progressively…

Geophysics · Physics 2025-03-03 Qinghua Lei , Didier Sornette

The Carlson-Langer model is a deterministic model of earthquakes. There were many investigations of this model, but its complicated spatio-temporal dynamics is not yet completely understood. We again study the model equation numerically,…

Geophysics · Physics 2015-06-17 Hidetsugu Sakaguchi , Shingo Morita

When an amorphous material is strained beyond the point of yielding it enters a state of continual reconfiguration via dissipative, avalanche-like slip events that relieve built-up local stress. However, how the statistics of such events…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2019-01-30 Kieran A. Murphy , Karin A. Dahmen , Heinrich M. Jaeger

Using the ETAS branching model of triggered seismicity, we apply the formalism of generating probability functions to calculate exactly the average difference between the magnitude of a mainshock and the magnitude of its largest aftershock…

Geophysics · Physics 2009-11-11 A. Saichev , D. Sornette

Physics-based and statistic-based models for describing seismic occurrence are two sides of the same coin. In this article we compare the temporal organization of events obtained in a spring-block model for the seismic fault with the one…

Geophysics · Physics 2023-02-03 Giuseppe Petrillo , Jiancang Zhuang , Eugenio Lippiello

The empirical Bath's law states that the average difference in magnitude between a mainshock and its largest aftershock is 1.2, regardless of the mainshock magnitude. Following Vere-Jones [1969] and Console et al. [2003], we show that the…

Geophysics · Physics 2017-08-23 Agnes Helmstetter , Didier Sornette

A bundle of fibers has been considered here as a model for composite materials, where breaking of the fibers occur due to a combined influence of applied load (stress) and external noise. Through numerical simulation and a mean-field…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2013-07-26 Srutarshi Pradhan , Anjan Kumar Chandra , Bikas K. Chakrabarti

We introduce a new class of models in which a large number of "agents" organize under the influence of an externally imposed coherent noise. The model shows reorganization events whose size distribution closely follows a power law over many…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-10-28 Kim Sneppen , M. E. J. Newman

Here we use a very simple conceptual model in an attempt to reduce essential parts of the complex nonlinearity of abrupt glacial climate changes (the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger events) to a few simple principles, namely (i) a threshold…

Geophysics · Physics 2020-01-29 H. Braun , A. Ganopolski , M. Christl , D. R. Chialvo

We consider the totally asymmetric simple exclusion process with initial conditions and/or jump rates such that shocks are generated. If the initial condition is deterministic, then the shock at time t will have a width of order t^{1/3}. We…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2014-04-24 Patrik L. Ferrari , Peter Nejjar

Accurate modelling of the joint extremal dependence structure within a stationary time series is a challenging problem that is important in many applications.\ Several previous approaches to this problem are only applicable to certain types…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-09 Graeme Auld , Ioannis Papastathopoulos

Spring-block models, such as the Olami-Feder-Christensen (OFC) model, were introduced several years ago to describe earthquake dynamics in the context of selforganized criticality. With the aim to address the dependency of the seismicity…

Geophysics · Physics 2015-06-19 Markos Avlonitis , Gerasimos Papadopoulos

We inquire the statistical nature and dynamics of shallow and deep seismogenesis along major plate margins of the NW Circum-Pacific Belt, by examining whether earthquakes are generated by Poisson processes and are independent…

Geophysics · Physics 2019-01-29 Andreas Tzanis , Evangeline Tripoliti

Here we study the relaxation of a chain consisting of 3 masses joined by non-linear springs and periodic conditions when the stiffness is weakened. This system, when expressed in their normal coordinates, yields a softened Henon-Heiles…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2018-04-11 J. Quetzalcoatl Toledo-Marin , Gerardo Naumis

Extending the central concept of recurrence times for a point process to recurrent events in space-time allows us to characterize seismicity as a record breaking process using only spatiotemporal relations among events. Linking record…

Geophysics · Physics 2015-06-26 Joern Davidsen , Peter Grassberger , Maya Paczuski

A series of accidents caused by crowd within the last decades evoked a lot of scientific interest in modeling the movement of pedestrian crowds. Based on discrete element method, a granular dynamic model, in which human body is simplified…

Physics and Society · Physics 2016-01-19 Peng Lin , Jian Ma , Siuming Lo