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We present data-dependent learning bounds for the general scenario of non-stationary non-mixing stochastic processes. Our learning guarantees are expressed in terms of a data-dependent measure of sequential complexity and a discrepancy…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-03-16 Vitaly Kuznetsov , Mehryar Mohri

Recent work in dynamical systems theory has shown that many properties that are associated with irreversible processes in fluids can be understood in terms of the dynamical properties of reversible, Hamiltonian systems. That is,…

chao-dyn · Physics 2015-06-24 J. R. Dorfman

While time series prediction is an important, actively studied problem, the predictive accuracy of time series models is complicated by non-stationarity. We develop a fast and effective approach to allow for non-stationarity in the…

Applications · Statistics 2015-12-10 Daniel M. McCarthy , Shane T. Jensen

We consider the problem of adaptive stabilization for discrete-time, multi-dimensional linear systems with bounded control input constraints and unbounded stochastic disturbances, where the parameters of the true system are unknown. To…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-04-04 Seth Siriya , Jingge Zhu , Dragan Nešić , Ye Pu

Within a Lagrangian formalism we derive the time-dependent Gutzwiller approximation for general multi-band Hubbard models. Our approach explicitly incorporates the coupling between time-dependent variational parameters and a time-dependent…

Strongly Correlated Electrons · Physics 2015-06-15 J. Bünemann , M. Capone , J. Lorenzana , G. Seibold

The article contains an overview over locally stationary processes. At the beginning time varying autoregressive processes are discussed in detail - both as as a deep example and an important class of locally stationary processes. In the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-02-06 Rainer Dahlhaus

In this paper the problems of the retrospective analysis of models with time-varying structure are considered. These models include contamination models with randomly switching parameters and multivariate classification models with an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-31 Boris Brodsky , Boris Darkhovsky

The unique fluctuation-dissipation theorem for equilibrium stands in contrast with the wide variety of nonequilibrium linear response formulae. Their most traditional approach is "analytic", which, in the absence of detailed balance,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2013-01-21 Marco Baiesi , Christian Maes

Structural resonance involves the absorption of inertial loads by a tuned structural elasticity: a process playing a key role in a wide range of biological and technological systems, including many biological and bio-inspired locomotion…

Pattern Formation and Solitons · Physics 2023-07-20 Arion Pons , Tsevi Beatus

The stochastic motion in a nonhomogeneous medium with traps is studied and diffusion properties of that system are discussed. The particle is subjected to a stochastic stimulation obeying a general L\'evy stable statistics and experiences…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-11 Tomasz Srokowski

Transformer LMs show emergent reasoning that resists mechanistic understanding. We offer a statistical physics framework for continuous-time chain-of-thought reasoning dynamics. We model sentence-level hidden state trajectories as a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-06-06 Jack David Carson , Amir Reisizadeh

A non--linear diffusion equation is derived by taking into account hopping rates depending on the occupation of next neighbouring sites. There appears additonal repulsive and attractive forces leading to a changed local mobiltiy. The…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 S. Artz , M. Schulz , S. Trimper

We consider linear models for stochastic dynamics. To any such model can be associated a network (namely a directed graph) describing which degrees of freedom interact under the dynamics. We tackle the problem of learning such a network…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-03-01 José Bento , Morteza Ibrahimi , Andrea Montanari

To understand the long-run behavior of Markov population models, the computation of the stationary distribution is often a crucial part. We propose a truncation-based approximation that employs a state-space lumping scheme, aggregating…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-05-05 Michael Backenköhler , Luca Bortolussi , Gerrit Großmann , Verena Wolf

The non-stationary Erlang-A queue is a fundamental queueing model that is used to describe the dynamic behavior of large scale multi-server service systems that may experience customer abandonments, such as call centers, hospitals, and…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-14 Andrew Daw , Jamol Pender

Stochastic processes with multiplicative noise have been studied independently in several different contexts over the past decades. We focus on the regime, found for a generic set of control parameters, in which stochastic processes with…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-25 D. Sornette

We analyze the phenomenon of stochastic resonance in an Ising-like system on a small-world network. The system, which is subject to the combined action of noise and an external modulation, can be interpreted as a stylized model of opinion…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2009-11-07 Marcelo Kuperman , Damian Zanette

Continuous-time Markov chains have been successful in modelling systems across numerous fields, with currents being fundamental entities that describe the flows of energy, particles, individuals, chemical species, information, or other…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-01-14 Sara Dal Cengio , Pedro E. Harunari , Vivien Lecomte , Matteo Polettini

Recently several authors have proposed stochastic evolutionary models for the growth of complex networks that give rise to power-law distributions. These models are based on the notion of preferential attachment leading to the ``rich get…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2007-05-23 Trevor Fenner , Mark Levene , George Loizou

We generalize Taylor's theorem by introducing a stochastic formulation based on an underlying Poisson point process model. We utilize this approach to propose a novel non-linear regression framework and perform statistical inference of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-07 Weichao Wu , Athanasios C. Micheas