Related papers: Modelling High-frequency Economic Time Series
We analyse derivative securities whose value is NOT a deterministic function of an underlying which means presence of a basis risk at any time. The key object of our analysis is conditional probability distribution at a given underlying…
This manuscript reports a stochastic dynamical scenario whose associated stationary probability density function is exactly a previously proposed one to adjust high-frequency traded volume distributions. This dynamical conjecture,…
We analyze the posterior contraction rates of parameters in Bayesian models via the Langevin diffusion process, in particular by controlling moments of the stochastic process and taking limits. Analogous to the non-asymptotic analysis of…
We establish an analogy between the motion of spring whose mass increases linearly with time and volatile stock markets dynamics within an economic model based on simple temporal demand and supply functions [J. Phys. A: Math. Gen. 33, 3637…
We study the evolution of probability distribution functions of returns, from the tick data of the Korean treasury bond (KTB) futures and the S$&$P 500 stock index, which can be described by means of the Fokker-Planck equation. We show that…
This paper builds a model of high-frequency equity returns by separately modeling the dynamics of trade-time returns and trade arrivals. Our main contributions are threefold. First, we characterize the distributional behavior of…
In this paper the diffusion entropy technique is applied to investigate the scaling behavior of financial markets. The scaling behaviors of four representative stock markets, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Standard&Poor 500, Heng Seng Index,…
An efficient method is presented as a means of an approximate, analytic time-dependent solution of the Fokker-Planck equation (FPE) for the Langevin model subjected to additive and multiplicative noise. We have assumed that the dynamical…
Time series of observables measured from complex systems do often exhibit non-normal statistics, their statistical distributions (PDF's) are not gaussian and often skewed, with roughly exponential tails. Departure from gaussianity is…
We study the Heston model, where the stock price dynamics is governed by a geometrical (multiplicative) Brownian motion with stochastic variance. We solve the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation exactly and, after integrating out the…
We solve an inverse problem for fluid particle pair-statistics: we show that a time sequence of probability density functions (PDF's) of separations can be exactly reproduced by solving the diffusion equation with a suitable time-dependent…
The scaling properties of oil price fluctuations are described as a non-stationary stochastic process realized by a time series of finite length. An original model is used to extract the scaling exponent of the fluctuation functions within…
We introduce a mean-field type approximation for description of company's income statistics. Utilizing huge company data we show that a discrete version of Langevin equation with additive and multiplicative noises can appropriately describe…
We present an overview of recent works on the statistical description of turbulent flows in terms of probability density functions (PDFs) in the framework of the Lundgren-Monin-Novikov (LMN) hierarchy. Within this framework, evolution…
Financial markets have long since been modeled using stochastic methods such as Brownian motion, and more recently, rough volatility models have been built using fractional Brownian motion. This fractional aspect brings memory into the…
A general method is proposed which allows one to estimate drift and diffusion coefficients of a stochastic process governed by a Langevin equation. It extends a previously devised approach [R. Friedrich et al., Physics Letters A 271, 217…
We analyze a specific class of random systems that are driven by a symmetric L\'{e}vy stable noise, where Langevin representation is absent. In view of the L\'{e}vy noise sensitivity to environmental inhomogeneities, the pertinent random…
We investigate piecewise-linear stochastic models as with regards to the probability distribution of functionals of the stochastic processes, a question which occurs frequently in large deviation theory. The functionals that we are looking…
We present a novel methodology based on filtered data and moving averages for estimating effective dynamics from observations of multiscale systems. We show in a semi-parametric framework of the Langevin type that our approach is…
Recent work has addressed the problem of inferring Langevin dynamics from data. In this work, we address the problem of relating terms in the Langevin equation to statistical properties, such as moments of the probability density function…