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A new method is introduced to create artificial time sequences that fulfil given constraints but are random otherwise. Constraints are usually derived from a measured signal for which surrogate data are to be generated. They are fulfilled…

chao-dyn · Physics 2009-10-31 Thomas Schreiber

This article proposes an artificial data generating algorithm that is simple and easy to customize. The fundamental concept is to perform random permutation of Monte Carlo generated random numbers which conform to the unconditional…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-02-17 A. Christian Silva , Fernando F. Ferreira

The surrogate data method is widely applied as a data dependent technique to test observed time series against a barrage of hypotheses. However, often the hypotheses one is able to address are not those of greatest interest, particularly…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2007-05-23 Xiaodong Luo , Tomomichi Nakamura , Michael Small

The issue of model selection in applied research is of vital importance. Since the true model in such research is not known, which model should be used from among various potential ones is an empirical question. There might exist several…

Econometrics · Economics 2018-05-24 R. Scott Hacker , Abdulnasser Hatemi-J

The method of surrogate data provides a framework for testing observed data against a hierarchy of alternative hypotheses. The aim of applying this method is to exclude the possibility that the data are consistent with simple linear…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2007-05-23 Xiaodong Luo , Jie Zhang , Junfeng Sun , Michael Small , Irene Moroz

Hypothesis testing based on surrogate data has emerged as a popular way to test the null hypothesis that a signal is a realization of a linear stochastic process. Typically, this is done by generating surrogates which are made to conform to…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2010-08-12 Diego Guarin , Alvaro Orozco , Edilson Delgado

Measurement-constrained datasets, often encountered in semi-supervised learning, arise when data labeling is costly, time-intensive, or hindered by confidentiality or ethical concerns, resulting in a scarcity of labeled data. In certain…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-15 Yixin Shen , Yang Ning

The key feature for the successful implementation of the surrogate data test for nonlinearity on a scalar time series is the generation of surrogate data that represent exactly the null hypothesis (statically transformed normal stochastic…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2009-11-07 D. Kugiumtzis

Current tests for nonlinearity compare a time series to the null hypothesis of a Gaussian linear stochastic process. For this restricted null assumption, random surrogates can be constructed which are constrained by the linear properties of…

chao-dyn · Physics 2009-10-31 Thomas Schreiber , Andreas Schmitz

Modern machine learning approaches to classification, including AdaBoost, support vector machines, and deep neural networks, utilize surrogate loss techniques to circumvent the computational complexity of minimizing empirical classification…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-07-26 Toru Kitagawa , Shosei Sakaguchi , Aleksey Tetenov

Given the long follow-up periods that are often required for treatment or intervention studies, the potential to use surrogate markers to decrease the required follow-up time is a very attractive goal. However, previous studies have shown…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-08-12 Layla Parast , Tianxi Cai , Lu Tian

The method of surrogate data is a tool to test whether data were generated by some class of model. Tests based on the periodogram have been proposed to decide if linear systems driven by Gaussian noise could have generated a sample time…

comp-gas · Physics 2008-02-03 J. Timmer

Before we apply nonlinear techniques, for example those inspired by chaos theory, to dynamical phenomena occurring in nature, it is necessary to first ask if the use of such advanced techniques is justified "by the data". While many…

chao-dyn · Physics 2009-10-31 Thomas Schreiber , Andreas Schmitz

Surrogate testing techniques have been used widely to investigate the presence of dynamical nonlinearities, an essential ingredient of deterministic chaotic processes. Traditional surrogate testing subscribes to statistical hypothesis…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-07-18 Radhakrishnan Nagarajan

We generalize the method of surrogate data of testing for nonlinearity in time series to the case that the data are sampled with uneven time intervals. The null hypothesis will be that the data have been generated by a linear stochastic…

chao-dyn · Physics 2009-10-31 Andreas Schmitz , Thomas Schreiber

This paper is concerned with the study of constrained statistical learning problems, the unconstrained version of which are at the core of virtually all of modern information processing. Accounting for constraints, however, is paramount to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-14 Luiz F. O. Chamon , Santiago Paternain , Miguel Calvo-Fullana , Alejandro Ribeiro

This work presents a technique for statistically modeling errors introduced by reduced-order models. The method employs Gaussian-process regression to construct a mapping from a small number of computationally inexpensive `error indicators'…

Numerical Analysis · Computer Science 2015-04-16 Martin Drohmann , Kevin Carlberg

Synthetic time series are often used in practical applications to augment the historical time series dataset for better performance of machine learning algorithms, amplify the occurrence of rare events, and also create counterfactual…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-18 Andrea Coletta , Sriram Gopalakrishan , Daniel Borrajo , Svitlana Vyetrenko

Practical problems with missing data are common, and statistical methods have been developed concerning the validity and/or efficiency of statistical procedures. On a central focus, there have been longstanding interests on the mechanism…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-26 Rui Duan , C. Jason Liang , Pamela Shaw , Cheng Yong Tang , Yong Chen

Many stochastic optimization problems include chance constraints that enforce constraint satisfaction with a specific probability; however, solving an optimization problem with chance constraints assumes that the solver has access to the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-09-21 Joshua Comden , Ahmed S. Zamzam , Andrey Bernstein
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