Related papers: Deterministic Chaos in Tropical Atmospheric Dynami…
Systems with delayed feedback can possess chaotic attractors with extremely high dimension, even if only a few physical degrees of freedom are involved. We propose a state space reconstruction from time series data of a scalar observable,…
AI weather foundation models now achieve forecast skill comparable to numerical weather prediction at far lower computational cost, yet their predictability for high-impact extremes across dynamical regimes remains uncertain. We evaluate…
Using detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), we study the scaling properties of the volatility time series $V_i=| T_{i+1}-T_i|$ of daily temperatures $T_i$ for ten chosen sites around the globe. We find that the volatility is long range…
A nonanticipative analog method is used for the long-term forecast of air temperature extremes. The data to be used for prediction include average daily air temperature, mean visibility, mean wind speed, mean dew point, maximum and minimum…
Atmospheric predictability research has long held that the limit of skillful deterministic weather forecasts is about 14 days. We challenge this limit using GraphCast, a machine-learning weather model, by optimizing forecast initial…
We investigate a model of high-dimensional dynamical variables with all-to-all interactions that are random and non-reciprocal. We characterize its phase diagram and show that the model can exhibit chaotic dynamics. We show that the…
Using a new time-dependent measure, we demonstrate for the first time that each defect in a representative defect-mediated spatiotemporally chaotic system is associated with one to two degrees of dynamical freedom. Furthermore, we show that…
We consider a dynamical system to have memory if it remembers the current state as well as the state before that. The dynamics is defined as follows: $x_{n+1}=T_{\alpha}(x_{n-1},x_{n})=\tau (\alpha \cdot x_{n}+(1-\alpha)\cdot x_{n-1}),$…
As the peak of the solar cycle approaches in 2025 and the ability of a single geomagnetic storm to significantly alter the orbit of Resident Space Objects (RSOs), techniques for atmospheric density forecasting are vital for space…
The striking fractal geometry of strange attractors underscores the generative nature of chaos: like probability distributions, chaotic systems can be repeatedly measured to produce arbitrarily-detailed information about the underlying…
Understanding the temporal dependence of precipitation is key to improving weather predictability and developing efficient stochastic rainfall models. We introduce an information-theoretic approach to quantify memory effects in discrete…
In long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) tasks, an increasing number of models have acknowledged that discrete time series originate from continuous dynamic systems and have attempted to model their dynamical structures. Recognizing the…
We discuss the predictability of a conservative system that drives a chaotic system with positive maximum Lyapunov exponent $\lambda_0$, such as the erratic motion of an asteroid in the gravitational field of two bodies of much larger mass.…
We describe here a new algorithm to model the water contents of the atmosphere from GNSS slant wet delays relative to a single receiver. We first make the assumption that the water vapor contents are mainly governed by a scale height…
Inter-cycle variations in the series of 11-year solar activity cycles have a significant impact on both the space environment and climate. Whether solar cycle variability is dominated by deterministic chaos or stochastic perturbations…
Analyzing data from paleoclimate archives such as tree rings or lake sediments offers the opportunity of inferring information on past climate variability. Often, such data sets are univariate and a proper reconstruction of the system's…
The predictability of weather and climate is strongly state-dependent: special and extremely relevant atmospheric states like blockings are associated with anomalous instability. Indeed, typically, the instability of a chaotic dynamical…
In recent years, there has been growing interest in using Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV) derived from Global Positioning System (GPS) signal delays to predict rainfall. However, the occurrence of rainfall is dependent on a myriad of…
The increasing frequency of extreme temperature events, such as daily maximum temperature ($T_x$) records, underscores the need for robust tools to understand their drivers and predict their occurrence. Previous studies have identified…
Observability can determine which recorded variables of a given system are optimal for discriminating its different states. Quantifying observability requires knowledge of the equations governing the dynamics. These equations are often…