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The accuracy of simulation-based forecasting in chaotic systems is heavily dependent on high-quality estimates of the system state at the time the forecast is initialized. Data assimilation methods are used to infer these initial conditions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-02 Michael McCabe , Jed Brown

We define several new models for how to define anomalous regions among enormous sets of trajectories. These are based on spatial scan statistics, and identify a geometric region which captures a subset of trajectories which are…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2019-06-06 Michael Matheny , Dong Xie , Jeff M. Phillips

Samples of dynamic or time-varying networks and other random object data such as time-varying probability distributions are increasingly encountered in modern data analysis. Common methods for time-varying data such as functional data…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-23 Paromita Dubey , Hans-Georg Müller

For a general class of diffusion processes with multiplicative noise, describing a variety of physical as well as financial phenomena, mostly typical of complex systems, we obtain the analytical solution for the moments at all times. We…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2010-03-18 Giacomo Bormetti , Danilo Delpini

We introduce circulance, a scalar measure for classifying time series of dynamical systems. Circulance captures the extent of temporal regularity or irregularity that is encoded in the topology of a directed ordinal pattern transition…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2026-01-05 Max Potratzki , Manuel Adams , Timo Bröhl , Klaus Lehnertz

Temporal data such as time series can be viewed as discretized measurements of the underlying function. To build a generative model for such data we have to model the stochastic process that governs it. We propose a solution by defining the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-22 Marin Biloš , Kashif Rasul , Anderson Schneider , Yuriy Nevmyvaka , Stephan Günnemann

Any continuous curve in a higher dimensional space can be considered a trajectory that can be parameterized by a single variable, usually taken as time. It is well known that a continuous curve can have a fractional dimensionality, which…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2024-05-08 Roxana Peña-Mendieta , Ania Mesa-Rodríguez , Ernesto Estevez-Rams , Daniel Estevez-Moya , Danays Kunka

This study evaluates data-driven models from a dynamical system perspective, such as unstable fixed points, periodic orbits, chaotic saddle, Lyapunov exponents, manifold structures, and statistical values. We find that these dynamical…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2021-11-10 Miki U Kobayashi , Kengo Nakai , Yoshitaka Saiki , Natsuki Tsutsumi

Data assimilation refers to the problem of finding trajectories of a prescribed dynamical model in such a way that the output of the model (usually some function of the model states) follows a given time series of observations. Typically…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2015-05-30 Jochen Bröcker , Ivan G. Szendro

The finest state space resolution that can be achieved in a physical dynamical system is limited by the presence of noise. In the weak-noise approximation the neighborhoods of deterministic periodic orbits can be computed as distributions…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2015-12-31 Jeffrey M. Heninger , Domenico Lippolis , Predrag Cvitanovic

Within the continuous endeavour of improving the efficiency and resilience of air transport, the trend of using concepts and metrics from statistical physics has recently gained momentum. This scientific discipline, which integrates…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2025-07-29 Felipe Olivares , Massimiliano Zanin

The recent paper claims that mean characteristics of chaotic orbits differ from the corresponding values averaged over the set of unstable periodic orbits, embedded in the chaotic attractor. We demonstrate that the alleged discrepancy is an…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2010-07-27 Michael A. Zaks , Denis S. Goldobin

The dynamic properties of a classical tracer particle in a random, disordered medium are investigated close to the localization transition. For Lorentz models obeying Newtonian and diffusive motion at the microscale, we have performed…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2008-04-29 Felix Höfling , Tobias Munk , Erwin Frey , Thomas Franosch

Scale-invariance is a ubiquitous observation in the dynamics of large distributed complex systems. The computation of its scaling exponents, which provide clues on its origin, is often hampered by the limited available sampling data, making…

One of the most impressive features of continuous phase transitions is the concept of universality, that allows to group the great variety of different critical phenomena into a small number of universality classes. All systems belonging to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-11 S. Lubeck

We present a method for time series analysis of both, scalar and nonscalar time-delay systems. If the dynamics of the system investigated is governed by a time-delay induced instability, the method allows to determine the delay time. In a…

chao-dyn · Physics 2009-10-31 M. J. Bünner , Th. Meyer , A. Kittel , J. Parisi

The main purpose of these lectures is to discuss briefly recent methods of calculation of statistical properties of quantum eigenvalues for chaotic systems based on semi-classical trace formulas. Under the assumption that periodic orbit…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2007-05-23 E. Bogomolny

This article revisits an analysis on inaccuracies of time series averaging under dynamic time warping conducted by \cite{Niennattrakul2007}. The authors presented a correctness-criterion and introduced drift-outs of averages from clusters.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-09-11 Brijnesh Jain

Consider a dynamical system given by a planar differential equation, which exhibits an unstable periodic orbit surrounding a stable periodic orbit. It is known that under random perturbations, the distribution of locations where the…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-01-20 Nils Berglund , Barbara Gentz

The curves of scaling behavior is a significant concept in fractal dimension analysis of complex systems. However, the underlying rationale of this kind of curves for fractal cities is not yet clear. The aim of this paper is at researching…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-08-28 Yanguang Chen