Related papers: Bayes linear variance adjustment for time series
Time series data is prevalent in a wide variety of real-world applications and it calls for trustworthy and explainable models for people to understand and fully trust decisions made by AI solutions. We consider the problem of building…
The accurate prediction of time-changing covariances is an important problem in the modeling of multivariate financial data. However, some of the most popular models suffer from a) overfitting problems and multiple local optima, b) failure…
In this paper we analyze the product of bi-dimensional VAR(1) model components. For the introduced time series we derive general formulas for the autocovariance function and study its properties for different cases of cross-dependence…
In view of the current availability and variety of measured data, there is an increasing demand for powerful signal processing tools that can cope successfully with the associated problems that often arise when data are being analysed. In…
Bayesian On-line Changepoint Detection is extended to on-line model selection and non-stationary spatio-temporal processes. We propose spatially structured Vector Autoregressions (VARs) for modelling the process between changepoints (CPs)…
A Bayesian approach is developed to analyze change points in multivariate time series and space-time data. The methodology is used to assess the impact of extended inundation on the ecosystem of the Gulf Plains bioregion in northern…
Accurately modeling the correlation structure of errors is critical for reliable uncertainty quantification in probabilistic time series forecasting. While recent deep learning models for multivariate time series have developed efficient…
Many natural systems, such as neurons firing in the brain or basketball teams traversing a court, give rise to time series data with complex, nonlinear dynamics. We can gain insight into these systems by decomposing the data into segments…
In multivariate time series analysis, understanding the underlying causal relationships among variables is often of interest for various applications. Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) provide a powerful framework for representing causal…
Count data appears in various disciplines. In this work, a new method to analyze time series count data has been proposed. The method assumes exponentially decaying covariance structure, a special class of the Mat\'ern covariance function,…
Machine Learning is becoming more prevalent in science and engineering, but many approaches do not provide meaningful uncertainty estimates and predictions may also violate known physical knowledge. We propose a Bayesian framework to embed…
The joint modeling of longitudinal and time-to-event data is an active area of statistics research that has received a lot of attention in the recent years. More recently, a new and attractive application of this type of models has been to…
We present a novel Bayesian approach to analysing multiple time-series with the aim of detecting abnormal regions. These are regions where the properties of the data change from some normal or baseline behaviour. We allow for the…
We present a learning theory for the training of a linear system operator having an input compositional variable and propose a Bayesian inversion method for inferring the unknown variable from an output of a noisy linear system. We assume…
In causal inference, interference occurs when the treatment of one unit may affect the outcomes of other units. The goal of this work is to serve as a guide to the use of linear outcome modeling for estimating causal effects in settings…
Recent work has developed Bayesian methods for the automatic statistical analysis and description of single time series as well as of homogeneous sets of time series data. We extend prior work to create an interpretable kernel embedding for…
When building linear or nonlinear models one is faced with the problem of selecting the best set of variable with which to predict the future dynamics. In nonlinear time series analysis the problem is to select the correct time delays in…
We consider the problem of change-point detection in multivariate time-series. The multivariate distribution of the observations is supposed to follow a graphical model, whose graph and parameters are affected by abrupt changes throughout…
In this work we consider time series with a finite number of discrete point changes. We assume that the data in each segment follows a different probability density functions (pdf). We focus on the case where the data in all segments are…
We develop an estimator for the high-dimensional covariance matrix of a locally stationary process with a smoothly varying trend and use this statistic to derive consistent predictors in non-stationary time series. In contrast to the…