Related papers: Tainted Evidence: Cosmological Model Selection vs.…
Cosmography is the tool that makes possible to untie the interpretation of cosmological observations from the definition of any dynamical prior. We review the constraints on the cosmographic parameter obtained using the most thorough data…
In order to account for the observable Universe, any comprehensive theory or model of cosmology must draw from many disciplines of physics, including gauge theories of strong and weak interactions, the hydrodynamics and microphysics of…
We consider approaches to cosmological parameter estimation in the inflationary cosmology, focussing on the required accuracy of the initial power spectra. Parametrizing the spectra, for example by power-laws, is well suited to testing the…
Focusing on the well motivated aperture mass statistics $\Map$, we study the possibility of constraining cosmological parameters using future space based SNAP class weak lensing missions. Using completely analytical results we construct the…
Bayesian statistics and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have found their place in the field of Cosmology. They have become important mathematical and numerical tools, especially in parameter estimation and model comparison. In…
When inferring unknown parameters or comparing different models, data must be compared to underlying theory. Even if a model has no closed-form solution to derive summary statistics, it is often still possible to simulate mock data in order…
Here we argue that the notion of falsifiability, a key concept in defining a valid scientific theory, can be quantified using Bayesian Model Selection, which is a standard tool in modern statistics. This relates falsifiability to the…
There are many issues that can cause problems when attempting to infer model parameters from data. Data and models are both imperfect, and as such there are multiple scenarios in which standard methods of inference will lead to misleading…
In the era of precision cosmology, establishing the correct magnitude of statistical errors in cosmological parameters is of crucial importance. However, widely used approximations in galaxy surveys analyses can lead to parameter…
Strong gravitational lenses are unique cosmological probes. These produce multiple images of a single source. Whether a single galaxy, a group or a cluster, extracting cosmologically relevant information requires an accurate modeling of the…
Cosmological observables are used to construct cosmological models. Since cosmological observations are limited to the light cone, a fixed number of observables (even measured to arbitrary accuracy) may not uniquely determine a cosmological…
How do we compare between hypotheses that are entirely consistent with observations? The marginal likelihood (aka Bayesian evidence), which represents the probability of generating our observations from a prior, provides a distinctive…
Fine-tuning studies whether some physical parameters, or relevant ratios between them, are located within so-called life-permitting intervals of small probability outside of which carbon-based life would not be possible. Recent developments…
The interpretation of cosmological observables requires the use of increasingly sophisticated theoretical models. Since these models are becoming computationally very expensive and display non-trivial uncertainties, the use of standard…
We introduce the notion of the cosmic numbers of a cosmological model, and discuss how they can be used to naturally classify models according to their ability to solve some of the problems of the standard cosmological model.
Model selection is the problem of distinguishing competing models, perhaps featuring different numbers of parameters. The statistics literature contains two distinct sets of tools, those based on information theory such as the Akaike…
We compute the shift in the epoch of matter-radiation equality due to the possible existence of a different statistical (non-extensive) background. The shift is mainly caused by a different neutrino-photon temperature ratio. We then…
The ability to test the nature of dark mass-energy components in the universe through large-scale structure studies hinges on accurate predictions of sky survey expectations within a given world model. Numerical simulations predict key…
Standard cosmological analyses typically treat galaxy formation and cosmological parameter inference as decoupled problems, relying on population-level statistics such as clustering, lensing, or halo abundances. However, classical studies…
We use cosmography to present constraints on the kinematics of the Universe, without postulating any underlying theoretical model. To this end, we use a Monte Carlo Markov Chain analysis to perform comparisons to the supernova Ia Union 2…