Related papers: Significance in gamma-ray astronomy - the Li & Ma …
The influence of systematic errors on the calculation of the statistical significance of a $\gamma$-ray signal with the frequently invoked Li and Ma method is investigated. A simple criterion is derived to decide whether the Li and Ma…
We describe a straightforward modification of frequently invoked methods for the determination of the statistical significance of a gamma-ray signal observed in a counting process. A simple criterion is proposed to decide whether a set of…
Accurate quantitative mapping of gamma-ray sources is critical for applications ranging from radiological emergency response and environmental monitoring to nuclear security and deep space exploration. Here, we show that integrating…
The On-Off problem, aka. Li-Ma problem, is a statistical problem where a measured rate is the sum of two parts. The first is due to a signal and the second due to a background, both of which are unknown. Mostly frequentist solutions are…
The light we receive from distant astrophysical objects carries information about their origins and the physical mechanisms that power them. The study of these signals, however, is complicated by the fact that observations are often a…
The field of gamma ray astronomy relies heavily on the statistical analysis of data. Because of the paucity of data, and the often large errors associated with detecting gamma rays, analysis and interpretation of the data require…
Astrophysical sources of TeV gamma rays are usually established by Cherenkov telescope observations. These counting type instruments have a field of view of few degrees in diameter and record large numbers of particle air showers via their…
We deal with the analysis of on-off measurements designed for the confirmation of a weak source of events whose presence is hypothesized, based on former observations. The problem of a small number of source events that are masked by an…
In high-energy astrophysics, it is common practice to account for the background overlaid with the counts from the source of interest with the help of auxiliary measurements carried on by pointing off-source. In this "on/off" measurement,…
When it comes to identifying or to characterizing gamma-ray sources, X-ray observations are of paramount importance. Correlated X-and-gamma-ray flux variations are a powerful identification tool, if the gamma-ray source is unidentified, or…
Several experiments in high-energy physics and astrophysics can be treated as on/off measurements, where an observation potentially containing a new source or effect ("on" measurement) is contrasted with a background-only observation free…
We propose an analytical solution to the on-off problem within the framework of Bayesian statistics. Both the statistical significance for the discovery of new phenomena and credible intervals on model parameters are presented in a…
These notes aim at presenting an overview of Bayesian statistics, the underlying concepts and application methodology that will be useful to astronomers seeking to analyse and interpret a wide variety of data about the Universe. The level…
We present preliminary results of a statistical analysis obtained with a sample of blazars observed at the Perugia Astronomical Observatory since 1992. We briefly show how these statistical results can be useful to discriminate faint…
By listening to gravity in the low frequency band, between 0.1 mHz and 1 Hz, the future space-based gravitational-wave observatory LISA will be able to detect tens of thousands of astrophysical sources from cosmic dawn to the present. The…
We discuss the use of the Bayesian evidence ratio, or Bayes factor, for model selection in astronomy. We treat the evidence ratio as a statistic and investigate its distribution over an ensemble of experiments, considering both simple…
Star-galaxy classification is one of the most fundamental data-processing tasks in survey astronomy, and a critical starting point for the scientific exploitation of survey data. For bright sources this classification can be done with…
Bayesian Inference is a powerful approach to data analysis that is based almost entirely on probability theory. In this approach, probabilities model {\it uncertainty} rather than randomness or variability. This thesis is composed of a…
Many of the basic problems in the astrophysics of charged Cosmic Rays remain on principle unresolved by in situ observations in the Solar System due to the chaotic nature of the propagation of these particles in Interstellar space. This…
The physics results of high energy gamma-ray astronomy are reported, emphasizing recent achievements with ground-based detectors. This includes some of the instrumental developments and latest projects. The fundamental contribution of the…