Related papers: North Atlantic thermohaline circulation predictabi…
Understanding and forecasting precipitation events in the Arctic maritime environments, such as Bear Island and Ny-{\AA}lesund, is crucial for assessing climate risk and developing early warning systems in vulnerable marine regions. This…
Within a simple model context, the sensitivity and stability of the thermohaline circulation to finite amplitude perturbations is studied. A new approach is used to tackle this nonlinear problem. The method is based on the computation of…
Atmospheric flows, an example of turbulent fluid flows, exhibit fractal fluctuations of all space-time scales ranging from turbulence scale of mm -sec to climate scales of thousands of kilometers - years and may be visualized as a nested…
Ozone depletion events are recurring phenomena in both polar regions, characterized by significant interannual variability. In this study, the Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) Global Deterministic Prediction System is used to…
Tropical cyclone and sea surface temperature data have been used in several studies to forecast the total number of hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin. Sea surface temperature (SST) and latent heat flux (LHF) are correlated with tropical…
We perform direct numerical simulations of three dimensional Rayleigh-Taylor turbulence with a nonuniform singular initial temperature background. In such conditions, the mixing layer evolves under the driving of a varying effective Atwood…
General circulation models (GCMs) are the foundation of weather and climate prediction. GCMs are physics-based simulators which combine a numerical solver for large-scale dynamics with tuned representations for small-scale processes such as…
Accurate and computationally-viable representations of clouds and turbulence are a long-standing challenge for climate model development. Traditional parameterizations that crudely but efficiently approximate these processes are a leading…
Sea ice, or frozen ocean water, freezes and melts every year in the Arctic. Forecasts of where sea ice will be located weeks to months in advance have become more important as the amount of sea ice declines due to climate change, for…
In recent years extensive studies on the Earth's climate system have been carried out by means of advanced complex network statistics. The great majority of these studies, however, have been focusing on investigating correlation structures…
The low frequency variability of the extratropical atmosphere involves hemispheric-scale recurring, often persistent, states known as teleconnection patterns or regimes, which can have profound impact on predictability on intra-seasonal and…
Tropical cyclones are known to expand to an equilibrium size on the $f$-plane, but the expansion process is not understood. In this study, an analytical model for tropical cyclone size expansion on the $f$-plane is proposed. Conceptually,…
Accurate ocean dynamics modeling is crucial for enhancing understanding of ocean circulation, predicting climate variability, and tackling challenges posed by climate change. Despite improvements in traditional numerical models, predicting…
Assuming time-scale separation, a simple and unified theory of thermodynamics and stochastic thermodynamics is constructed for small classical systems strongly interacting with its environment in a controllable fashion. The total…
We introduce a technique of time series analysis, potential forecasting, which is based on dynamical propagation of the probability density of time series. We employ polynomial coefficients of the orthogonal approximation of the empirical…
Most operational climate services providers base their seasonal predictions on initialised general circulation models (GCMs) or statistical techniques that fit past observations. GCMs require substantial computational resources, which…
Ecological systems are governed by complex interactions which are mainly nonlinear. In order to capture this complexity and nonlinearity, statistical models recently gained popularity. However, although these models are commonly applied in…
The understanding of the statistical properties and of the dynamics of multistable systems is gaining more and more importance in a vast variety of scientific fields. This is especially relevant for the investigation of the tipping points…
Understanding local currents in the North Atlantic region of the ocean is a key part of modelling heat transfer and global climate patterns. Satellites provide a surface signature of the temperature of the ocean with a high horizontal…
Ensembles of General Circulation Models (GCMs) are the primary tools for investigating climate sensitivity, projecting future climate states, and quantifying uncertainty. GCM ensembles are subject to substantial uncertainty due to model…