Related papers: Dynamical Model for Virus Spread
The aim of the paper is to describe a model of the development of the Covid-19 contamination of the population of a country or a region. For this purpose a special branching process with two types of individuals is considered. This model is…
One of the fundamental questions in population dynamics is how biological populations respond to environmental perturbations. In population dynamics, the mean fitness and the fraction of a trait in the steady state are important because…
We study a dynamic infection spread model, inspired by the discrete time SIR model, where infections are spread via non-isolated infected individuals. While infection keeps spreading over time, a limited capacity testing is performed at…
The manner epidemics occurs in a social network depends on various elements, with two of the most influential being the relationships among individuals in the population and the mechanism of transmission. In this paper, we assume that the…
Epidemic propagation on networks represents an important departure from traditional massaction models. However, the high-dimensionality of the exact models poses a challenge to both mathematical analysis and parameter inference. By using…
Throughout the course of an epidemic, the rate at which disease spreads varies with behavioral changes, the emergence of new disease variants, and the introduction of mitigation policies. Estimating such changes in transmission rates can…
We introduce a kinetic framework for modeling the time evolution of the statistical distributions of the population densities in the three compartments of susceptible, infectious, and recovered individuals, under epidemic spreading driven…
We classify and predict the asymptotic dynamics of a class of swarming models. The model consists of a conservation equation in one dimension describing the movement of a population density field. The velocity is found by convolving the…
When an infection spreads in a community, an individual's probability of becoming infected depends on both her susceptibility and exposure to the contagion through contact with others. While one often has knowledge regarding an individual's…
In this paper we derive and analyse mean-field models for the dynamics of groups of individuals undergoing a random walk. The random motion of individuals is only influenced by the perceived densities of the different groups present as well…
Viruses constantly undergo mutations with genomic changes. The propagation of variants of viruses is an interesting problem. We perform numerical simulations of the microscopic epidemic model based on network theory for the spread of…
To forecast the time dynamics of an epidemic, we propose a discrete stochastic model that unifies and generalizes previous approaches to the subject. Viewing a given population of individuals or groups of individuals with given health state…
In the present paper, our goal is to establish a framework for the mathematical modelling and the analysis of the spread of an epidemic in a large population commuting regularly, typically along a time-periodic pattern, as is roughly…
Cell-to-cell variability is inherent to numerous biological processes, including cell migration. Quantifying and characterizing the variability of migrating cells is challenging, as it requires monitoring many cells for long time windows…
We study the susceptible-infected model with power-law waiting time distributions $P(\tau)\sim \tau^{-\alpha}$, as a model of spreading dynamics under heterogeneous human activity patterns. We found that the average number of new infections…
We are interested in modeling some two-level population dynamics, resulting from the interplay of ecological interactions and phenotypic variation of individuals (or hosts) and the evolution of cells (or parasites) of two types living in…
The paper describes and compares three approaches to modeling an epidemic spread. The first approach is a well-known system of SIR ordinary differential equations. The second is a mean-field model, in which an isolation strategy for each…
Stochastic agent-based models can account for millions of cells with spatiotemporal movement that can be a function of different factors. However, these simulations can be computationally expensive. In this work, we develop a novel…
Recent years have seen a large amount of interest in epidemics on networks as a way of representing the complex structure of contacts capable of spreading infections through the modern human population. The configuration model is a popular…
This article examines how diseases on random networks spread in time. The disease is described by a probability distribution function for the number of infected and recovered individuals, and the probability distribution is described by a…