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Safety-critical prediction systems, such as autonomous vehicles, weather forecasters, and medical monitors, commonly rely on probabilistic forecasters. These forecasters make predictions about possible future outcomes, and their quality and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-30 Romeo Valentin

Despite being trained on balanced datasets, existing AI-generated image detectors often exhibit systematic bias at test time, frequently misclassifying fake images as real. We hypothesize that this behavior stems from distributional shift…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Muli Yang , Gabriel James Goenawan , Henan Wang , Huaiyuan Qin , Chenghao Xu , Yanhua Yang , Fen Fang , Ying Sun , Joo-Hwee Lim , Hongyuan Zhu

Explainable AI (XAI) has been proposed as a valuable tool to assist in downstream tasks involving human and AI collaboration. Perhaps the most psychologically valid XAI techniques are case based approaches which display 'whole' exemplars to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-11-07 Eoin Kenny , Eoin Delaney , Mark Keane

In the recent literature on machine learning and decision making, calibration has emerged as a desirable and widely-studied statistical property of the outputs of binary prediction models. However, the algorithmic aspects of measuring model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-24 Lunjia Hu , Arun Jambulapati , Kevin Tian , Chutong Yang

In the e-commerce advertising scenario, estimating the true probabilities (known as a calibrated estimate) on Click-Through Rate (CTR) and Conversion Rate (CVR) is critical. Previous research has introduced numerous solutions for addressing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-22 Shuai Yang , Hao Yang , Zhuang Zou , Linhe Xu , Shuo Yuan , Yifan Zeng

Accurate prediction of continuous properties is essential to many scientific and engineering tasks. Although deep-learning regressors excel with abundant labels, their accuracy deteriorates in data-scarce regimes. We introduce RankRefine, a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-02 Kevin Tirta Wijaya , Michael Sun , Minghao Guo , Hans-Peter Seidel , Wojciech Matusik , Vahid Babaei

Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) are increasingly used to generate data for downstream analyses, yet naively treating these predictions as true observations can lead to biased results and incorrect inference. Wang et…

This paper addresses the problem of selective classification for deep neural networks, where a model is allowed to abstain from low-confidence predictions to avoid potential errors. We focus on so-called post-hoc methods, which replace the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-23 Luís Felipe P. Cattelan , Danilo Silva

In typical machine learning systems, an estimate of the probability of the prediction is used to assess the system's confidence in the prediction. This confidence measure is usually uncalibrated; i.e.\ the system's confidence in the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-05-24 Shehzaad Dhuliawala , Leonard Adolphs , Rajarshi Das , Mrinmaya Sachan

Fairness has been a critical issue that affects the adoption of deep learning models in real practice. To improve model fairness, many existing methods have been proposed and evaluated to be effective in their own contexts. However, there…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-26 Junjie Yang , Jiajun Jiang , Zeyu Sun , Junjie Chen

Artificial intelligence models are increasingly scaled to improve predictive accuracy, yet it remains unclear whether scale improves the quality of post-hoc explanations. We investigate this relationship by evaluating 11 computer vision…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Mateusz Cedro , Marcin Chlebus

Graph-augmented retrieval combines dense similarity with graph-based relevance signals such as Personalized PageRank (PPR), but these scores have different distributions and are not directly comparable. We study this as a score calibration…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2026-04-29 Andre Bacellar

The importance of tuning hyperparameters in Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL) is established through empirical research and applications, evident from the increase in new hyperparameter optimization (HPO) algorithms and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-06 Anton Geburek , Neeratyoy Mallik , Danny Stoll , Xavier Bouthillier , Frank Hutter

Accurate multi-sensor calibration is essential for deploying robust perception systems in applications such as autonomous driving and intelligent transportation. Existing LiDAR-camera calibration methods often rely on manually placed…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-09-03 Lei Cheng , Lihao Guo , Tianya Zhang , Tam Bang , Austin Harris , Mustafa Hajij , Mina Sartipi , Siyang Cao

For classification models based on neural networks, the maximum predicted class probability is often used as a confidence score. This score rarely predicts well the probability of making a correct prediction and requires a post-processing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-07 Adrien LeCoz , Stéphane Herbin , Faouzi Adjed

Calibration is an essential prerequisite for the accurate data fusion of LiDAR and camera sensors. Traditional calibration techniques often require specific targets or suitable scenes to obtain reliable 2D-3D correspondences. To tackle the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-01-29 Shujuan Huang , Chunyu Lin , Yao Zhao

Probabilistic predictions can be evaluated through comparisons with observed label frequencies, that is, through the lens of calibration. Recent scholarship on algorithmic fairness has started to look at a growing variety of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-16 Benedikt Höltgen , Robert C Williamson

Being cautious is crucial for enhancing the trustworthiness of machine learning systems integrated into decision-making pipelines. Although calibrated probabilities help in optimal decision-making, perfect calibration remains unattainable,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-12 Mari-Liis Allikivi , Joonas Järve , Meelis Kull

While statistics focusses on hypothesis testing and on estimating (properties of) the true sampling distribution, in machine learning the performance of learning algorithms on future data is the primary issue. In this paper we bridge the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2009-12-30 Marcus Hutter

Recent studies have revealed that, beyond conventional accuracy, calibration should also be considered for training modern deep neural networks. To address miscalibration during learning, some methods have explored different penalty…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-04-13 Bingyuan Liu , Jérôme Rony , Adrian Galdran , Jose Dolz , Ismail Ben Ayed