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Related papers: Beyond MSE: Improving Precipitation Nowcasting wit…

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Post-processing typically takes the outputs of a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model and applies linear statistical techniques to produce improve localized forecasts, by including additional observations, or determining systematic…

Quantile regression is a powerful tool for inferring how covariates affect specific percentiles of the response distribution. Existing methods either estimate conditional quantiles separately for each quantile of interest or estimate the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-19 Joseph Feldman , Daniel Kowal

The increasing frequency of extreme weather events due to global climate change urges accurate weather prediction. Recently, great advances have been made by the \textbf{end-to-end methods}, thanks to deep learning techniques, but they face…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-24 Shaohan Li , Hao Yang , Min Chen , Xiaolin Qin

With the goal of making high-resolution forecasts of regional rainfall, precipitation nowcasting has become an important and fundamental technology underlying various public services ranging from rainstorm warnings to flight safety.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2017-10-06 Xingjian Shi , Zhihan Gao , Leonard Lausen , Hao Wang , Dit-Yan Yeung , Wai-kin Wong , Wang-chun Woo

Precipitation plays a critical role in the Earth's hydrological cycle, directly affecting ecosystems, agriculture, and water resource management. Accurate precipitation estimation and prediction are crucial for understanding climate…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-04-16 Zhenyu Yu , Hanqing Chen , Mohd Yamani Idna Idris , Pei Wang

Precipitation nowcasting -- the short-term prediction of rainfall using recent radar observations -- is critical for weather-sensitive sectors such as transportation, agriculture, and disaster mitigation. While recent deep learning models…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-07-02 Peter Pavlík , Marc Schleiss , Anna Bou Ezzeddine , Viera Rozinajová

Forecast stability, that is, the consistency of predictions over time, is essential in business settings where sudden shifts in forecasts can disrupt planning and erode trust in predictive systems. Despite its importance, stability is often…

Applications · Statistics 2026-02-11 Marco Zanotti

Accurate medium-range precipitation forecasting is crucial for hydrometeorological risk management and disaster mitigation, yet remains challenging for current numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. Traditional ensemble systems such as…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-10-24 Tianyi Xiong , Haonan Chen

Accurate precipitation estimation is critical for flood forecasting, water resource management, and disaster preparedness. Satellite products provide global hourly coverage but contain systematic biases; ground-based gauges are accurate at…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-04-14 Shunya Nagashima , Takumi Bannai , Shuitsu Koyama , Tomoya Mitsui , Shuntaro Suzuki

We propose Multivariate Quantile Function Forecaster (MQF$^2$), a global probabilistic forecasting method constructed using a multivariate quantile function and investigate its application to multi-horizon forecasting. Prior approaches are…

Line of sight satellite systems, unmanned aerial vehicles, high-altitude platforms, and microwave links that operate on frequency bands such as Ka-band or higher are extremely susceptible to rain. Thus, rain fade forecasting for these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-05 Aidin Ferdowsi , David Whitefield

Forecasting the weather is an increasingly data intensive exercise. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are becoming more complex, with higher resolutions, and there are increasing numbers of different models in operation. While the…

Applications · Statistics 2021-03-17 Charlie Kirkwood , Theo Economou , Henry Odbert , Nicolas Pugeault

Current climate models often struggle with accuracy because they lack sufficient resolution, a limitation caused by computational constraints. This reduces the precision of weather forecasts and long-term climate predictions. To address…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-10-03 Adib Bazgir , Yuwen Zhang

Precipitation data collected at sub-hourly resolution represents specific challenges for missing data recovery by being largely stochastic in nature and highly unbalanced in the duration of rain vs non-rain. Here we present a two-step…

Climate change has increased the severity and frequency of weather disasters all around the world. Flood inundation mapping based on earth observation data can help in this context, by providing cheap and accurate maps depicting the area…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-02 Kevin Iselborn , Marco Stricker , Takashi Miyamoto , Marlon Nuske , Andreas Dengel

Data-driven forecasts of air quality have recently achieved more accurate short-term predictions. Despite their success, most of the current data-driven solutions lack proper quantifications of model uncertainty that communicate how much to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-07 Abdulmajid Murad , Frank Alexander Kraemer , Kerstin Bach , Gavin Taylor

In this paper, we address the challenge of multivariate time-series forecasting using quantum machine learning techniques. We introduce adaptation strategies that extend variational quantum circuit models, traditionally limited to…

Uncertainty quantification is crucial in time series prediction, and quantile regression offers a valuable mechanism for uncertainty quantification which is useful for extreme value forecasting. Although deep learning models have been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-26 Jimmy Cheung , Smruthi Rangarajan , Amelia Maddocks , Xizhe Chen , Rohitash Chandra

Forecasting meteorological variables is challenging due to the complexity of their processes, requiring advanced models for accuracy. Accurate precipitation forecasts are vital for society. Reliable predictions help communities mitigate…

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models often underperform compared to simpler climatology-based precipitation forecasts in northern tropical Africa, even after statistical postprocessing. AI-based forecasting models show promise but have…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-08-30 Athul Rasheeda Satheesh , Peter Knippertz , Andreas H. Fink