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Data dispersed across multiple files are commonly integrated through probabilistic linkage methods, where even minimal error rates in record matching can significantly contaminate subsequent statistical analyses. In regression problems, we…
Sample-based Bayesian inference provides a route to uncertainty quantification in the geosciences, and inverse problems in general, though is very computationally demanding in the naive form that requires simulating an accurate computer…
Estimating the predictive uncertainty of a Bayesian learning model is critical in various decision-making problems, e.g., reinforcement learning, detecting adversarial attack, self-driving car. As the model posterior is almost always…
As we move away from the data, the predictive uncertainty should increase, since a great variety of explanations are consistent with the little available information. We introduce Distance-Aware Prior (DAP) calibration, a method to correct…
The choice of tuning parameters in Bayesian variable selection is a critical problem in modern statistics. In particular, for Bayesian linear regression with non-local priors, the scale parameter in the non-local prior density is an…
We consider the use of randomised forward models and log-likelihoods within the Bayesian approach to inverse problems. Such random approximations to the exact forward model or log-likelihood arise naturally when a computationally expensive…
Computation of the marginal likelihood from a simulated posterior distribution is central to Bayesian model selection but is computationally difficult. I argue that the marginal likelihood can be reliably computed from a posterior sample by…
Stochastic approximation Monte Carlo (SAMC) has recently been proposed by Liang, Liu and Carroll [J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 102 (2007) 305--320] as a general simulation and optimization algorithm. In this paper, we propose to improve its…
Estimating time-varying correlation matrices is challenging because existing methods may adapt slowly to structural changes, impose insufficient regularization, or produce diffuse posterior uncertainty. In moderate dimensions, an additional…
We explore probability modelling of discretization uncertainty for system states defined implicitly by ordinary or partial differential equations. Accounting for this uncertainty can avoid posterior under-coverage when likelihoods are…
The Bayesian approach provides powerful methods for variable selection. The ability to incorporate sparsity through prior beliefs and account for parameter uncertainty allows Bayesian variable selection to consistently identify which of the…
The Bayesian method is noted to produce spuriously high posterior probabilities for phylogenetic trees in analysis of large datasets, but the precise reasons for this over-confidence are unknown. In general, the performance of Bayesian…
Exact-sparsity inducing prior distributions in Bayesian analysis typically lead to posterior distributions that are very challenging to handle by standard Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, particular in high-dimensional models with…
This paper presents a study of the large-sample behavior of the posterior distribution of a structural parameter which is partially identified by moment inequalities. The posterior density is derived based on the limited information…
Commonly used priors for Vector Autoregressions (VARs) induce shrinkage on the autoregressive coefficients. Introducing shrinkage on the error covariance matrix is sometimes done but, in the vast majority of cases, without considering the…
Statistical models for multivariate data often include a semi-orthogonal matrix parameter. In many applications, there is reason to expect that the semi-orthogonal matrix parameter satisfies a structural assumption such as sparsity or…
Improper priors are not allowed for the computation of the Bayesian evidence $Z=p({\bf y})$ (a.k.a., marginal likelihood), since in this case $Z$ is not completely specified due to an arbitrary constant involved in the computation. However,…
Solving Bayesian inverse problems typically involves deriving a posterior distribution using Bayes' rule, followed by sampling from this posterior for analysis. Sampling methods, such as general-purpose Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), are…
We propose a Bayesian inference framework to estimate uncertainties in inverse scattering problems. Given the observed data, the forward model and their uncertainties, we find the posterior distribution over a finite parameter field…
In applications of Bayesian procedures, once a class of priors has been chosen, it may be tempting to fix the prior's hyperparameters from the data, in an empirical Bayes (EB) fashion, usually by their maximum marginal likelihood estimates…