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In this work, we consider a finite-state inhomogeneous-time Markov chain whose probabilities of transition from one state to another tend to decrease over time. This can be seen as a cooling of the dynamics of an underlying Markov chain. We…
The Reduction Principle states that, near a stable equilibrium under fixed viability selection, a selectively neutral modifier allele that reduces recombination rate among selected loci is favored, whereas one that increases recombination…
The sequentially Markov coalescent (SMC) is a Markov jump process which models correlations in local genealogies across a chromosome. It has been used as a theoretical tool for studying linkage disequilibrium and identity-by-descent, and it…
We develop a new bidirectional algorithm for estimating Markov chain multi-step transition probabilities: given a Markov chain, we want to estimate the probability of hitting a given target state in $\ell$ steps after starting from a given…
We consider a dynamical system obtained by the random switching between $N$ Lotka-Volterra food chains. Our key assumption will be that at least two vector fields only differ on the resources allocated to the growth rate of the first…
Physical notions of stochastic resonance for potential diffusions in periodically changing double-well potentials such as the spectral power amplification have proved to be defective. They are not robust for the passage to their effective…
Stochastic kinetic models (SKMs) are increasingly used to account for the inherent stochasticity exhibited by interacting populations of species in areas such as epidemiology, population ecology and systems biology. Species numbers are…
Improved rates of convergence for ergodic Markov chains and relaxed conditions for them, as well as analogous convergence results for some non-homogeneous Markov chains are studied. The setting from the previous works is extended. Examples…
Most successful applications of deep learning involve similar training and test conditions. However, tasks such as biological sequence design involve searching for sequences that improve desirable properties beyond previously known values,…
This paper studies the estimation of low-rank Markov chains from empirical trajectories. We propose a non-convex estimator based on rank-constrained likelihood maximization. Statistical upper bounds are provided for the Kullback-Leiber…
Markov branching systems form a fundamental class of stochastic models that are extensively applied in biology, physics, finance, and other domains. These systems are distinguished by their continuous-time evolution and inherent branching…
Viruses like influenza have long coevolved with host immune systems, gradually shaping the evolutionary trajectory of these pathogens. Host immune systems develop immunity against circulating strains, which in turn avoid extinction by…
We study the limit behaviour of upper and lower bounds on expected time averages in imprecise Markov chains; a generalised type of Markov chain where the local dynamics, traditionally characterised by transition probabilities, are now…
Stochastic optimization methods such as mirror descent have wide applications due to low computational cost. Those methods have been well studied under assumption of the independent and identical distribution, and usually achieve sublinear…
Random metastability occurs when an externally forced or noisy system possesses more than one state of apparent equilibrium. This work investigates fluctuations in a class of random dynamical systems, arising from randomly perturbing a…
The upper extremes of a Markov chain with regulary varying stationary marginal distribution are known to exhibit under general conditions a multiplicative random walk structure called the tail chain. More generally, if the Markov chain is…
Using elementary methods, we prove that for a countable Markov chain $P$ of ergodic degree $d > 0$ the rate of convergence towards the stationary distribution is subgeometric of order $n^{-d}$, provided the initial distribution satisfies…
Dispersal of species to find a more favorable habitat is important in population dynamics. Dispersal rates evolve in response to the relative success of different dispersal strategies. In a simplified deterministic treatment (J. Dockery, V.…
First passage of stochastic processes under resetting has recently been an active research topic in the field of statistical physics. However, most of previous studies mainly focused on the systems with continuous time and space. In this…
We introduce the avoidance Markov metrics and theories which provide more flexibility in the design of random walk and impose new conditions on the walk to avoid (or transit) a specific node (or a set of nodes) before the stopping criteria.…