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We introduce an approach to inferring the causal architecture of stochastic dynamical systems that extends rate distortion theory to use causal shielding---a natural principle of learning. We study two distinct cases of causal inference:…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2010-08-23 Susanne Still , James P. Crutchfield , Christopher J. Ellison

This paper studies the problem of globally optimizing a variable of interest that is part of a causal model in which a sequence of interventions can be performed. This problem arises in biology, operational research, communications and,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-05-27 Virginia Aglietti , Xiaoyu Lu , Andrei Paleyes , Javier González

Causal reasoning has been an indispensable capability for humans and other intelligent animals to interact with the physical world. In this work, we propose to endow an artificial agent with the capability of causal reasoning for completing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-07 Suraj Nair , Yuke Zhu , Silvio Savarese , Li Fei-Fei

Causality plays a central role in understanding interactions between variables in complex systems. These systems often exhibit state-dependent causal relationships, where both the strength and direction of causality vary with the value of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2025-08-05 Álvaro Martínez-Sánchez , Adrián Lozano-Durán

Traffic prediction in data-scarce, cross-city settings is challenging due to complex nonlinear dynamics and domain shifts. Existing methods often fail to capture traffic's inherent chaotic nature for effective few-shot learning. We propose…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-06 Abdul Joseph Fofanah , Lian Wen , David Chen , Alpha Alimamy Kamara , Zhongyi Zhang

Causal discovery aims to uncover cause-and-effect relationships encoded in causal graphs by leveraging observational, interventional data, or their combination. The majority of existing causal discovery methods are developed assuming…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-25 Muhammad Qasim Elahi , Lai Wei , Murat Kocaoglu , Mahsa Ghasemi

There exist well-developed frameworks for causal modelling, but these require rather a lot of human domain expertise to define causal variables and perform interventions. In order to enable autonomous agents to learn abstract causal models…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-08-15 Taco Cohen

Causal estimands can vary significantly depending on the relationship between outcomes in treatment and control groups, potentially leading to wide partial identification (PI) intervals that impede decision making. Incorporating covariates…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-02 Sirui Lin , Zijun Gao , Jose Blanchet , Peter Glynn

Causal analysis plays a foundational role in scientific discovery and reliable decision-making, yet it remains largely inaccessible to domain experts due to its conceptual and algorithmic complexity. This disconnect between causal…

Understanding directed temporal interactions in multivariate time series is essential for interpreting complex dynamical systems and the predictive models trained on them. We present Causal-INSIGHT, a model-agnostic, post-hoc interpretation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-27 Benjamin Redden , Hui Wang , Shuyan Li

To draw scientifically meaningful conclusions and build reliable models of quantitative phenomena, cause and effect must be taken into consideration (either implicitly or explicitly). This is particularly challenging when the measurements…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-11 Max A. Little , Reham Badawy

Latent world models allow agents to reason about complex environments with high-dimensional observations. However, adapting to new environments and effectively leveraging previous knowledge remain significant challenges. We present…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-23 Anson Lei , Bernhard Schölkopf , Ingmar Posner

We study the estimation of causal estimand involving the joint distribution of treatment and control outcomes for a single unit. In typical causal inference settings, it is impossible to observe both outcomes simultaneously, which places…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-16 Sirui Lin , Zijun Gao , Jose Blanchet , Peter Glynn

Several methods exist to infer causal networks from massive volumes of observational data. However, almost all existing methods require a considerable length of time series data to capture cause and effect relationships. In contrast,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-12-22 Abbas Shojaee , Isuru Ranasinghe , Alireza Ani

A fundamental difficulty of causal learning is that causal models can generally not be fully identified based on observational data only. Interventional data, that is, data originating from different experimental environments, improves…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-04 Juan L. Gamella , Christina Heinze-Deml

We propose to meta-learn causal structures based on how fast a learner adapts to new distributions arising from sparse distributional changes, e.g. due to interventions, actions of agents and other sources of non-stationarities. We show…

Current Reinforcement Learning (RL) methods often suffer from sample-inefficiency, resulting from blind exploration strategies that neglect causal relationships among states, actions, and rewards. Although recent causal approaches aim to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-02-17 Hongye Cao , Fan Feng , Tianpei Yang , Jing Huo , Yang Gao

Flow theory describes an optimal cognitive state where individuals experience deep focus and intrinsic motivation when a task's difficulty aligns with their skill level. In AI-augmented reasoning, interventions that disrupt the state of…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2025-04-23 Dinithi Dissanayake , Suranga Nanayakkara

Imitation learning suffers from causal confusion. This phenomenon occurs when learned policies attend to features that do not causally influence the expert actions but are instead spuriously correlated. Causally confused agents produce low…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-14 Samuel Pfrommer , Yatong Bai , Hyunin Lee , Somayeh Sojoudi

Current research in Visual Navigation reveals opportunities for improvement. First, the direct adoption of RNNs and Transformers often overlooks the specific differences between Embodied AI and traditional sequential data modelling,…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-10-08 Ruoyu Wang , Yao Liu , Yuanjiang Cao , Lina Yao