Related papers: High Performance, Low Reliability: Uncertainty Ben…

Performative prediction is a framework accounting for the shift in the data distribution induced by the prediction of a model deployed in the real world. Ensuring rapid convergence to a stable solution where the data distribution remains…

Despite recent progress in systematic evaluation frameworks, benchmarking the uncertainty of large language models (LLMs) remains a highly challenging task. Existing methods for benchmarking the uncertainty of LLMs face three key…

The field of time series forecasting has garnered significant attention in recent years, prompting the development of advanced models like TimeSieve, which demonstrates impressive performance. However, an analysis reveals certain…

Practitioners deploying time series forecasting models face a dilemma: exhaustively validating dozens of models is computationally prohibitive, yet choosing the wrong model risks poor performance. We show that spectral…

We present a novel framework addressing a critical vulnerability in Large Language Models (LLMs): the prevalence of factual inaccuracies within intermediate reasoning steps despite correct final answers. This phenomenon poses substantial…

With the recent appearance of LLMs in practical settings, having methods that can effectively detect factual inconsistencies is crucial to reduce the propagation of misinformation and improve trust in model outputs. When testing on existing…

Foundation Models (FMs) display exceptional performance in tasks such as natural language processing and are being applied across a growing range of disciplines. Although typically trained on large public datasets, FMs are often fine-tuned…

Graph foundation models (GFM) aim to acquire transferable knowledge by pre-training on diverse graphs, which can be adapted to various downstream tasks. However, domain shift in graphs is inherently two-dimensional: graphs differ not only…

The analysis of tabular datasets is highly prevalent both in scientific research and real-world applications of Machine Learning (ML). Unlike many other ML tasks, Deep Learning (DL) models often do not outperform traditional methods in this…

Effective Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) represents a key aspect for reliable deployment of Large Language Models (LLMs) in automated decision-making and beyond. Yet, for LLM generation with multiple choice structure, the state-of-the-art…

Pathology foundation models (PFMs) have rapidly advanced and are becoming a common backbone for downstream clinical tasks, offering strong transferability across tissues and institutions. However, for dense prediction (e.g., segmentation),…

Time-series forecasting models (TSFM) have evolved from classical statistical methods to sophisticated foundation models, yet understanding why and when these models succeed or fail remains challenging. Despite this known limitation, time…

Decision Trees and Random Forests are among the most widely used machine learning models, and often achieve state-of-the-art performance in tabular, domain-agnostic datasets. Nonetheless, being primarily discriminative models they lack…

Understanding how large language models (LLMs) internally represent and process their predictions is central to detecting uncertainty and preventing hallucinations. While several studies have shown that models encode uncertainty in their…

Cognitive diagnosis models have been widely used in different areas, especially intelligent education, to measure users' proficiency levels on knowledge concepts, based on which users can get personalized instructions. As the measurement is…

While recent advancements in foundation models have significantly impacted machine learning, rigorous tests on the performance of time series foundation models (TSFMs) remain largely underexplored. This paper presents an empirical study…

This work presents a systematic investigation into the latent knowledge encoded within Network Foundation Models (NFMs) that focuses on hidden representations analysis rather than pure downstream task performance. Different from existing…

Fair predictive algorithms hinge on both equality and trust, yet inherent uncertainty in real-world data challenges our ability to make consistent, fair, and calibrated decisions. While fairly managing predictive error has been extensively…

Large language models (LLMs) frequently achieve impressive scores on standardized benchmarks, yet accuracy alone offers a limited view of their capabilities. Evaluating open-source LLMs through leaderboards faces persistent issues like data…

Tabular data underpins decisions across science, industry, and public services. Despite rapid progress, advances in deep learning have not fully carried over to the tabular domain, where gradient-boosted decision trees (GBDTs) remain a…