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Unmeasured confounding is one of the major concerns in causal inference from observational data. Proximal causal inference (PCI) is an emerging methodological framework to detect and potentially account for confounding bias by carefully…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-24 Kendrick Li , George C. Linderman , Xu Shi , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

In this paper we review an approach to estimating the causal effect of a time-varying treatment on time to some event of interest. This approach is designed for the situation where the treatment may have been repeatedly adapted to patient…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 J. J. Lok , R. D. Gill , A. W. van der Vaart , J. M. Robins

Instrumental variables have been widely used to estimate the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome. Existing confidence intervals for causal effects based on instrumental variables assume that all of the putative instrumental variables…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-03 Hyunseung Kang , Youjin Lee , T. Tony Cai , Dylan S. Small

In a variety of applications, including nonparametric instrumental variable (NPIV) analysis, proximal causal inference under unmeasured confounding, and missing-not-at-random data with shadow variables, we are interested in inference on a…

Inferring the effect of interventions within complex systems is a fundamental problem of statistics. A widely studied approach employs structural causal models that postulate noisy functional relations among a set of interacting variables.…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-14 David Strieder , Mathias Drton

Causal inference in multivariate time series is challenging due to the fact that the sampling rate may not be as fast as the timescale of the causal interactions. In this context, we can view our observed series as a subsampled version of…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-04-11 Alex Tank , Emily B. Fox , Ali Shojaie

In observational studies, instrumental variables estimation is greatly utilized to identify causal effects. One of the key conditions for the instrumental variables estimator to be consistent is the exclusion restriction, which indicates…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-16 Gyuhyeong Goh , Jisang Yu

Recent advances in causal mediation analysis have formalized conditions for estimating direct and indirect effects in various contexts. These approaches have been extended to a number of models for survival outcomes including accelerated…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-01-11 Isabel R. Fulcher , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen , Paige L. Williams

This work develops a flexible inferential framework for nonparametric causal inference in time-to-event settings, based on stochastic interventions defined through multiplicative scaling of the intensity governing an intermediate event…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-04 Helene Charlotte Wiese Rytgaard , Mark van der Laan

Inferring causation from time series data is of scientific interest in different disciplines, particularly in neural connectomics. While different approaches exist in the literature with parametric modeling assumptions, we focus on a…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-18 Rahul Biswas , SuryaNarayana Sripada , Somabha Mukherjee

Learning causal effects of a binary exposure on time-to-event endpoints can be challenging because survival times may be partially observed due to censoring and systematically biased due to truncation. In this work, we present debiased…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-15 Eric R. Morenz , Charles J. Wolock , Marco Carone

The No Unmeasured Confounding Assumption is widely used to identify causal effects in observational studies. Recent work on proximal inference has provided alternative identification results that succeed even in the presence of unobserved…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-17 Benjamin Kompa , David R. Bellamy , Thomas Kolokotrones , James M. Robins , Andrew L. Beam

Learning causal relationships among a set of variables, as encoded by a directed acyclic graph, from observational data is complicated by the presence of unobserved confounders. Instrumental variables (IVs) are a popular remedy for this…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-17 Jing Zou , Wei Li , Wei Lin

In some causal inference scenarios, the treatment variable is measured inaccurately, for instance in epidemiology or econometrics. Failure to correct for the effect of this measurement error can lead to biased causal effect estimates.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-13 Antti Pöllänen , Pekka Marttinen

Causal graphs may inform covariate adjustment for estimating causal effects and improve estimation efficiency by exploiting the graphical structure. In many applications, however, the target causal parameter may not be point-identified due…

Existing survival analysis techniques heavily rely on strong modelling assumptions and are, therefore, prone to model misspecification errors. In this paper, we develop an inferential method based on ideas from conformal prediction, which…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-25 Emmanuel J. Candès , Lihua Lei , Zhimei Ren

Weak identification arises in many statistical problems when key variables exhibit weak correlations-for example, when instrumental variables correlate weakly with treatment, or when proxy variables correlate weakly with unmeasured…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-12 Rui Wang , Kwun Chuen Gary Chan , Ting Ye

In the context of having an instrumental variable, the standard practice in causal inference begins by targeting an effect of interest and proceeds by formulating assumptions enabling its identification. We turn this around by adhering to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-25 Carlos García Meixide , Mark J. van der Laan

Instrumental variable (IV) regression relies on instruments to infer causal effects from observational data with unobserved confounding. We consider IV regression in time series models, such as vector auto-regressive (VAR) processes. Direct…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-23 Nikolaj Thams , Rikke Søndergaard , Sebastian Weichwald , Jonas Peters

Many epidemiological and clinical studies aim at analyzing a time-to-event endpoint. A common complication is right censoring. In some cases, it arises because subjects are still surviving after the study terminates or move out of the study…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-10 Andrew Ying